What looked like a stacked Saturday of college football before the season has dimmed in luster a bit due to recent results, but Week 10 still brings plenty of intriguing matchups around the sport.
Which teams will come out on top during this weekend’s big games?
Week 10 college football moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Penn State vs  Ohio State |
(-1600) |
 Vanderbilt vs  Texas |
(-134) |
 Miami vs  SMU |
(-465) |
 Texas Tech vs  Kansas State |
(-275) |
 Georgia vs  Florida |
(-295) |
 South Carolina vs  Mississippi |
(+385) |
 USC vs  Nebraska |
(-225) |
 Georgia Tech vs  NC State |
(-200) |
 Oklahoma vs  Tennessee |
(+126) |
 Cincinnati vs  Utah |
(-330) |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 10-29.
Expert Week 10 CFB moneyline picks
Penn State vs Ohio State: Ohio State (-1600)
What looked like one of the biggest games of the regular season fell in stature after Penn State fell flat on its face, losing four consecutive games heading into Week 10. Both teams are fresh off a bye week, but No. 1 Ohio State has been dominant on defense (5.9 ppg) and effective on offense (third in success rate), so the Buckeyes should have a comfortable time in Columbus.
Vanderbilt vs Texas: Texas (-134)
No. 9 Vanderbilt has the better offense on paper (first in EPA per play). Still, No. 20 Texas is stout enough defensively that it can cause problems for Diego Pavia & Co. This is a better spot for the Longhorns, who return home for the first time since September 20, than the Commodores, who hit the road after back-to-back road games. This one might be very close, but Texas pulls off a win in Austin, with or without Arch Manning.
Miami vs SMU: Miami (-465)
No. 10 Miami has been the better team on both sides of the ball, ranking within the Top 15 in success rate on both sides of the ball. This is the first time the Hurricanes have left the state of Florida all season, creating some volatility in their expected performance, but they should prevail. SMU thrives when its defensive front can overwhelm opponents, but Miami has one of the top offensive lines in the country.
Texas Tech vs Kansas State: Texas Tech (-275)
Behren Morton is expected back at quarterback for No. 13 Texas Tech, giving the Red Raiders a leg up after the offense sputtered from a statistical standpoint in his absence. Kansas State has performed much better in its last four games (3-1) than in its first four (1-3), so this could be a close game, but Tech’s dominant defensive front (first in EPA per rush allowed) gives it a high floor in any matchup.
Georgia vs Florida: Georgia (-295)
Florida could get off the mat following a bye week and the dismissal of Billy Napier as head coach, but No. 5 Georgia has been the superior team. Kirby Smart’s squad has only lost once — to Alabama in a game where the Bulldogs won the yards per play battle 6.7 to 5.2.
South Carolina vs Mississippi: South Carolina (+385)
No. 7 Mississippi isn’t nearly as good as its Top-10 ranking or 7-1 record would indicate, creating some value in the betting market for the Rebels’ opponents moving forward. South Carolina has been far from perfect en route to a 3-5 record, but the Gamecocks showed growth last week by essentially playing Alabama to a standstill (+5 in total yardage). This is one matchup where LaNorris Sellers should get to work as his poor offensive line goes up against a bad Mississippi defensive front (130th in line yards, 118th in front seven havoc).
USC vs Nebraska: USC (-225)
Nebraska hasn’t stopped the run all season (92nd in EPA per rush allowed), and No. 23 USC leads the nation in rushing success rate, providing a higher floor than usual for Lincoln Riley’s squad in a road Big Ten game. The Cornhuskers have only beaten one good team this season, and that was against Cincinnati all the way back in the opening game of the season.
Georgia Tech vs NC State: Georgia Tech (-200)
NC State has the offensive talent to make things interesting, but the Wolfpack have won a single game since September 11 and are therefore far from trustworthy. Give me No. 8 Georgia Tech to stay undefeated, powering through an NC State defense that ranks 94th in EPA per play allowed. The Yellow Jackets have gotten the best of this matchup lately, winning four of the last five meetings.
Oklahoma vs Tennessee: Oklahoma (+126)
In a game between two 6-2 SEC teams, I’ll go against the team that hasn’t beaten a worthwhile opponent yet this season (No. 14 Tennessee). It’s a spot where No. 18 Oklahoma must pick itself up quickly after a tough loss to Mississippi in Week 9, but the Sooners’ defensive front (first in front seven havoc, third in stuff rate) is the best unit in this game.
Cincinnati vs Utah: Utah (-330)
A night game at Rice-Eccles in November? Yeah, I’m backing the home team. This is far from a “gimme” as No. 24 Utah is still dealing with uncertainty at quarterback due to Devon Dampier’s injury, but the Utes are the better team overall. Cincinnati ranks 100th in success rate on defense, so it’ll be an issue if the offense doesn’t perform at its usual elite level in a difficult road environment.
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