Lane Kiffin’s version of “The Decision” will dominate the headlines of this year’s Egg Bowl between the Mississippi Rebels and the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
But that doesn’t change the fact that there’s still a football game to be played, and I’m betting that the Rebels will be running to a victory and have built an SGP around that.
For even more college football picks for this classic rivalry game, check out my Mississippi vs. Mississippi State predictions.
Mississippi vs Mississippi State same-game parlay
The Mississippi Rebels visit their in-state rivals, the Mississippi State Bulldogs, with a 10-1 record and are a fourth-quarter collapse against Georgia away from being undefeated. They have an elite offense, a solid defense, and are virtually guaranteed to make the CFP. The Rebels are a legit national title contender.
But that may not matter at all if Lane Kiffin has already decided to move on to another job. LSU and Florida are hot and heavy for the Rebels’ coach, but my gut says Kiffin will stay put and keep rolling with a potential perennial contender he's built in Oxford.
That means his focus this week will be on the Bulldogs. Mississippi State is a little underrated, but its defense will be its Achilles heel, particularly when it comes to stopping the run.
The Bulldogs rank 87th in the country in defensive success rate, 111th in success rate against the run, and 67th in EPA.
That doesn’t bode well going against Mississippi’s QB-RB combo of Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy.
Those two lead a Rebels offense that ranks 10th in EPA per play and 13th in offensive success rate. They will lean on the run game here and wear out the Bulldogs as the game wears on, winning the Egg Bowl and covering the spread before Kiffin announces he’s staying in Oxford.
I like Lacy to go Over his rushing yards prop in the process. Now, it’s a lofty 120.5, but don’t let that big number scare you off; Lacy still makes this a Black Friday deal.
The Rebels runner has topped that number four times this season and three times in the last six games. That includes a workhorse performance last time out against Florida, carrying the ball 31 times for 224 yards.
But he’s not the only back I like to put up some numbers here. Bulldogs’ back Fluff Bothwell is returning to form after a tough midseason ankle injury. He had 465 yards at 5.5 yards per carry before the injury and now faces a Mississippi defense ranking 81st in success rate vs. the rush.
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