The last time the Kentucky Wildcats visited the Florida Gators they stunned the college football world, winning there for the first time in 30 years, pulling off the upset as 13.5-point underdogs.
If the Wildcats want to pull off another shocking upset, they’ll have to do it as even bigger dogs this time around, getting 23.5 points. Can Kentucky slow down the Kyles? Or will the Gators cruise to a cover?
Let’s take a look at our best college football predictions for Kentucky vs. Florida, with kickoff scheduled for Saturday, November 28 at 12:00 ET at The Swamp in Gainesville.
Kentucky Wildcats vs Florida Gators Betting Preview
There is a chance The Swamp could live up to its name this weekend. The forecast is calling for mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers during the game, with temperatures in the low 70s and minimal wind. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Kentucky: Jamin Davis LB (Questionable), Jamari Brown DB (Questionable), Taj Dodson DB (Questionable), Torrance Davis LB (Questionable), D'eryk Jackson LB (Questionable), Luke Fortner T (Questionable), Max Duffy P (Questionable), Justin Rigg TE (Out), Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB (Out).
Florida: Kyle Pitts TE (Probable), Jeremiah Moon LB (Questionable), James Houston IV LB (Questionable), Stewart Reese OL (Questionable), Nick Oelrich DB (Questionable), Jaelin Humphries DL (Questionable), T.J. Moore OL (Questionable), Ventrell Miller LB (Questionable), Hayden Knighton OL (Questionable), Kamar Wilcoxson DB (Questionable), Kahleil Jackson UT (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Gators have done a good job recently bouncing back for their backers, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kentucky vs. Florida.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
With a record of 6-1 (4-3 ATS) Florida still has its sights set on the SEC title game and a potential College Football Playoff berth. But that means no more slipups for the Gators. Florida comes into this matchup winners of four in a row, going 3-1 ATS and winning by an average score of 46-24, which includes a big win over rival Georgia.
The Gators are of course led by the Kyles. Quarterback Kyle Trask and tight end Kyle Pitts. Trask is the current odds-on favorite for the Heisman, throwing for 2,554 yards with 31 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions. Pitts has hauled in 414 of those yards on 24 catches, including eight touchdowns.
But Trask has a multitude of weapons at his disposal, as Florida has six players with at least 12 receptions while averaging at least 12 yards per catch.
Now, Kentucky has a solid pass defense that is giving up just 222.8 passing yards per game - but that is a lot of ground to cover - and is coming off a tough 63-3 loss at the hands of Alabama, where the Crimson Tide basically moved the ball at will.
The bigger problem for the Wildcats is their offense. Kentucky manages just 20.8 points per game this season and it's sounding like they will be without their best player for the second straight week. Running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. was having a fantastic year for Kentucky, but missed last week due to COVID and his status for this week is up in air.
Florida should get out to an early lead in this one and will never look back. The Kentucky defense might keep this respectable for a while, but the offense won’t do its part.
PREDICTION: Florida -22.5 (-110)
This is another game with a new-world SEC total of 60.5. For reference, the highest total in this matchup over the last 10 years has been 54. And while Florida can put up scores in bunches, Kentucky just doesn’t seem up to the task of doing its part in this one.
Wildcats QB Terry Wilson wasn’t able to shoulder the load without Rodriguez in the backfield against Alabama. He threw for just 120 yards on 10-19 passing, as Kentucky ended up with only 179 total yards. Even when the Kentucky offense is rolling, it is a grind ‘em out kind of style.
While the Gators can light up the scoreboard, they not-so-secretly love to play the control the clock game. Florida ranks 26th in the country in time of possession, and over the last three games, only Wisconsin and Washington have held the ball longer than the Gators. Take this one to fall below the number.
PREDICTION: Under 60.5 (-110)
First Quarter Team Total Pick
Florida has been known for its fast starts this season. The Gators average 10.9 points per game in the first quarter, that’s 12th best in the country and sixth-best among teams who have played at least five games this season. Take the Gators to score twice in the opening frame and go over their first-quarter team total.
PREDICTION: Florida Over 9.5 First Quarter Team Total (-144)
Kentucky vs Florida Betting Card
- Florida -22.5 (-110)
- Under 60.5 (-110)
- Florida Over 9.5 First Quarter Team Total (-144)
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