DraftKings released college football odds for 70 “Game of the Year” matchups for this upcoming season. These are the biggest college football games or rivalries on the schedule, and getting your college football picks in early can often mean value down the road.
I often gravitate towards betting large underdogs in rivalry games where I don’t question their motivation. I can also lean on series history and situational spots while also accounting for any possible disparities between the spreads and my power ratings.
Here are my three favorite bets on the board.
Best Games of the Year predictions
| Match | Date |  |
|---|---|---|
 USCvs.  PSU |
Oct. 10 | PSU +1.5 (-110) |
 NDvs.  BYU |
Oct. 17 | BYU +10.5 (-110) |
 MSUvs.  MICH |
Nov. 7 | MSU +17.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
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USC (-1.5) vs Penn State, Oct. 10
Best bet: Penn State +1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My power ratings make the Penn State Nittany Lions 2-point favorites in this game.
The USC Trojans have not travelled well. In the last two years, USC has flown across the country six times in Big Ten action. The Trojans are 0-6 against the spread (ATS) and lost four of those games outright despite being favored in all six.
If that’s not enough for you: Since 2012, USC is incredibly just 2-16 and 1-16-1 ATS in games played in the central and eastern time zones. The Trojans are failing to cover those games by an average of 11 points per game.
This is also a bad spot for USC, being its seventh straight game after two highly contested matchups against Oregon and Washington.
This will be Penn State’s annual marquee “White Out” game at Beaver Stadium. It’s arguably the best environment in college football each year. There’s also a good chance Penn State will enter the game 5-0 after being a touchdown favorite in their first five games (Marshall, at Temple, Buffalo, Wisconsin, and at Northwestern).
Penn State wins this game outright and will likely be favored by the time the game kicks off.
Notre Dame (-10.5) vs BYU, Oct. 17
Best bet: BYU +10.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My power ratings make the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 9.5-point favorites.
This could be the biggest home game in BYU Cougars history (or at least match their upset of No. 1 Miami way back in 1990). I’m expecting one of the better home environments in college football this year.
BYU has thrived against ranked opponents at home recently. Since 2019, the Cougars are 7-0 ATS with an average cover margin of 15 points per game. BYU was an underdog in six of those seven games, yet has a 6-1 straight-up record.
Notre Dame will be at least a three-touchdown favorite in their first six games, so it's very likely the Irish enter at 6-0. However, this will be the first time they play an opponent that's capable of punching back, and it will be interesting to see how they handle it.
Finally, this will be the highest elevation (4,649 feet) Notre Dame has played in since 2013. Could the Irish be out of wind in the second half?
Michigan State vs Michigan (-17.5), Nov. 17
Best bet: Michigan State +17.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Power ratings-wise, this line makes sense, but it's a horrible spot for the Michigan Wolverines to be laying a huge number in a rivalry game.
Michigan is in the middle of a seven-game stretch (with no byes) that includes Penn State, Indiana, at Oregon, and at Ohio State. You could argue this is only their fifth-most important game in that stretch. Meanwhile, Michigan State is coming off a bye.
Both teams have first-year head coaches who prefer to run a slower tempo, lean on the run game, and play defense. A running clock with low scoring usually bodes well for the big underdog.
Finally, Michigan State is 14-4 ATS in this rivalry since 2008. In the last 31 meetings, Michigan State has only lost by more than 17 points five times to Michigan.
Other notable matchups at DraftKings:
- Oklahoma vs. Michigan (-2.5), Sept. 12
- Ohio State vs. Texas (PK), Sept. 12
- LSU vs. Mississippi (-1.5), Sept. 12
- Oklahoma vs. Texas (-6), Oct. 10
- Georgia vs. Alabama (+3), Oct. 10
- Ohio State vs. Indiana (PK), Oct. 17
- Oregon vs. Ohio State (-6), Nov. 7
- Miami vs. Notre Dame (-7), Nov. 7
- Alabama vs. LSU (-4), Nov. 7
- Texas vs. Texs A&M (+2.5), Nov. 27
- Michigan vs. Ohio State (-14), Nov. 28
- Army vs. Navy (-2.5), Dec. 12
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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