With the college football season nearly here, I'm building my Heisman Trophy portfolio ahead of Week 0 by highlighting the players I'm buying and selling the stock of as part of my Heisman Hedge Fund.
All season long, I'll be breaking down which players to buy, sell, hold, and buy at a discount (as a penny stock) after each week of the college football season based on the latest Heisman Trophy odds.
To kick it all off and lay the groundwork for my portfolio, I'm making my initial Heisman Trophy predictions by buying three contenders, selling two more, and nabbing a pair of QBs for my penny stock watch.
Heisman Trophy odds
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
It's no surprise to see two QBs from blue-blood programs atop the charts as favorites to win the Heisman Trophy. Texas and Notre Dame are two of the three biggest college football national championship odds favorites, and Arch Manning and CJ Carr are among the most well-known quarterbacks in the country.
However, while Manning's hype is deserved (he's also atop the 2027 NFL Draft odds) after playing like one of the best QBs in the country from November onward, Carr's the No. 1 player on my sell list heading into the season.
Heisman portfolio strategy ahead of the season
| Player, POS | Position |  Probability |
Action/price |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Buy | 5% | Yes (6¢) |
 CJ Carr, QB |
Sell | 12% | No (89¢) |
 Keelon Russell, QB |
Buy | 5% | Yes (6¢) |
 Sam Leavitt, QB |
Sell | 4% | No (97¢) |
 Dante Moore, QB |
Buy | 6% | Yes (6¢) |
 Drew Mestemaker, QB |
Penny stock | 2% | Yes (2¢) |
 Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB |
Penny stock | 2% | Yes (2¢) |
Buy: Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
- Kalshi probability: 5%
- 2025 stats: 87 receptions, 1,243 receiving yards, 13 total TDs
- Key metric: 5th nationally in yards per route run (3.43)
- Opening opponent: vs. Ball State (Sept. 5/12:30 p.m. ET)
Since 1987, only four wide receivers have won the Heisman (and one of them also played cornerback), but Jeremiah Smith is still my favorite player to target to win the award this season.
He's the best player in college football and has been an unstoppable force since arriving at Ohio State. In both his seasons with the Buckeyes, he ranked in the Top 10 nationally in yards per route run, first-down receptions, and touchdown catches.
Smith is the biggest mismatch in the country at 6-foot-3, 224 pounds, and he was No. 2 on Bruce Feldman's Freaks List earlier this month after reportedly clocking a 1.44-second 10-yard split, 6.84-second 3-cone, 11-foot broad jump, 38 1/2-inch vertical jump, and hitting 23.5 mph on the GPS.
He's already been dubbed a generational player and compared to Julio Jones, yet Smith is trading at half of Carr's price. Between his production, his athleticism, the narrative (unanimously being viewed as the best player in the sport), and the high-profile team he plays for, Smith is the best buy on the board ahead of the season.
Sell: CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame
- Kalshi probability: 12%
- 2025 stats: 2,741 passing yards, 27 total TDs, 6 INTs
- Key metric: 49th nationally in adjusted completion percentage (73.2%)
- Opening opponent: vs. Wisconsin (Sept. 6/7:30 p.m. ET)
It makes sense that Carr is entering the season as a Heisman favorite, but being the biggest favorite and most expensive player on the board? Something isn't adding up.
While narrative has always been massively important in the Heisman race, Carr being a productive QB for a national power isn't enough if the numbers aren't there. There are so many high-profile, uber-productive QBs in college football this season, and Carr might be the most overrated of the bunch.
On his side is the fact that Notre Dame is going to push for a 12-0 season given its schedule, but working against him is that he's more of a cerebral QB from the pocket than a dynamic, game-changing QB. And even then, among QBs with 300+ dropbacks last season, Carr ranked outside the Top 40 in adjusted completion percentage (73.2%) and turnover-worthy play rate (3.2%).
Carr's price to win the Heisman isn't worth it unless you believe the Fighting Irish will embrace a pass-happy approach this season and that he'll put up nearly double the TD passes he did in 2025.
Buy: Keelon Russell, QB, Alabama
- Kalshi probability: 5%
- 2025 stats: 143 passing yards, 2 TD passes
- Key metric: 55 TD passes, 4 INTs senior year of high school
- Opening opponent: vs. East Carolina (Sept. 5/Noon ET)
Buying a first-year starting QB to win the Heisman might seem questionable, but nearly a dozen first-year starting QBs have won the award over the last 20 years. And Keelon Russell isn't just any QB; he was the No. 2 recruit in the country in 2025.
After sitting behind first-round pick Ty Simpson last year at Alabama, Russell is set to be one of the breakout stars in college football this season and him winning the Heisman is among Brad Powers' favorite college football long-shot futures for 2026, too.
Russell was a star at Duncanville in Texas, totaling 97 TDs over his final two high school seasons, and flashed his talent in limited action last year as a true freshman at Alabama. In the Crimson Tide's spring game this year, he threw for four TDs and beat out Austin Mack for the QB1 job in fall camp.
Now he's QB1 for a top SEC program in Kalen DeBoer's system, which is one of the most QB-friendly in the country. Since 2021, DeBoer's starting QBs have averaged 4,010 passing yards and 35 total TDs per season. I'm buying this system and Russell's five-star talent.
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Sell: Sam Leavitt, QB, LSU
- Kalshi probability: 4%
- 2025 stats: 1,628 passing yards, 15 total TDs, 3 INTs
- Key metric: 68.3% adjusted completion percentage
- Opening opponent: vs. Clemson (Sept. 5/7:30 p.m. ET)
This is as much about not buying LSU as a true national title contender as it is about not buying Sam Leavitt as a realistic Heisman contender. Leavitt will be productive, like all Lane Kiffin QBs are, but this is a quarterback in a new system coming off a season-ending foot injury and throwing to a new batch of pass catchers.
Leavitt also plays football with a bit of a "YOLO" attitude, meaning he'll be overly aggressive, hold the ball too long, and take some mean hits (he's not all that different from Jaxson Dart in that department). Last season, Leavitt had 12 turnover-worthy plays in seven games, was 112 in adjusted completion percentage (Min. 200 dropbacks), and 19th in pressure-to-sack rate (23%).
While a healthy Leavitt will put up big numbers at LSU, the sporadic nature of his play leads to too much variance from game to game, which is why I'm selling him as a Heisman contender.
Buy: Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
- Kalshi probability: 6%
- 2025 stats: 3,565 passing yards, 32 total TDs, 10 INTs
- Key metric: 4th nationally in adjusted completion percentage (80.3%)
- Opening opponent: vs. Boise State (Sept. 5/3:30 p.m. ET)
Buying Dante Moore is all about the value here. He was likely the No. 2 pick in the NFL draft had he turned pro after last season at Oregon, but instead, he returns to a Ducks squad that's in better shape offensively this year.
So why are six quarterbacks priced higher than him? Moore was one of only three Power 4 QBs to put up an adjusted completion percentage of at least 80% (Min. 300 dropbacks), and the only one of those three to have a big-time throw rate better than 6% - he had the third-highest big-time throw rate in the P4 (6.9%).
Moore is the face of one of the biggest championship contenders in the country (Oregon's my pick to take home the title), and he's surrounded by proven talent. The Ducks are 26th nationally in returning offensive production and get a healthy Evan Stewart back at wide receiver.
With Stewart joining Dakorien Moore, Jeremiah McClellan, Iverson Hooks, and Jamari Johnson, Oregon has one of the best pass-catching rooms in the country. And at this price, I'm buying Moore all day in the Heisman race.
Penny stock watch: Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State
- Kalshi probability: 2%
- 2025 stats: 4,379 passing yards, 39 total TDs, 9 INTs
- Key metric: 13th nationally in adjusted completion percentage (77.5%)
- Opening opponent: vs. Tulsa (Sept. 5/3:45 p.m. ET)
From not starting a game at QB in high school to being a long-shot Heisman contender is quite the rise for Drew Mestemaker. It's well deserved, though, after he helped North Texas finish No. 3 in EPA per play last season while leading the nation in passing yards.
Now he's in the P4 at Oklahoma State with pretty much every key cog from that Mean Green offense from last season. Head coach Eric Morris, two of his top three receivers (Wyatt Young, Miles Coleman), his top running back (Caleb Hawkins), and several of his offensive linemen from last season are in Stillwater.
Morris has a long history of finding hidden gems at QB and helping them to major production. In his 13 years as an offensive coordinator/head coach, his QBs (including Patrick Mahomes, Cam Ward, and Baker Mayfield) have averaged 343 passing yards per game ... over 12 games, that's 4,116 passing yards.
The production will be there, so at a reduced price, I'm buying Mestemaker, being one of the top QBs in the nation again.
Penny stock watch: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB, California
- Kalshi probability: 2%
- 2025 stats: 3,454 passing yards, 22 total TDs, 9 INTs
- Key metric: 6th nationally in big-time throws (28)
- Opening opponent: vs. UCLA (Sept. 5/10:30 p.m. ET)
His numbers as a freshman may not jump off the page, but if you stayed up late last season, you saw the ball jump out of Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele's hand. His left arm is a howitzer, and he has no fear ripping tight-window throws all over the field.
JKS is the biggest reason I focused on California as one of my favorite plays in my ACC win total predictions, and the Golden Bears' new coach Tosh Lupoi, spent the offseason improving the pieces around his young QB. Last season, JKS was second nationally in EPA lost to drops, so Lupoi brought in a quartet of playmakers via the portal to help out his QB.
This season, JKS should be one of the top quarterbacks in the country, and if he takes a sophomore leap, he could seriously receive some Heisman buzz. He's already being talked about as a future first-round NFL draft pick.
We saw a former Cal QB come out of nowhere to win the Heisman last year, and while it's unrealistic that JKS will actually win, this price undervalues his talent.
Preseason Heisman portfolio summary & season road map
My approach to building my Heisman portfolio heading into the season is fairly straightforward. I'm buying three different types of players: the best player in the country on a title contender (Smith), the most proven QB in the country on a title contender (Moore), and the five-star talent poised to break out and turn his team into a title contender (Russell).
Meanwhile, I'm selling on a pair of QBs for two different reasons. Carr shouldn't be the favorite, and that's a terrible price to get him at given the numbers he'll likely put up for Notre Dame this season. And Leavitt just has too many unknowns with the inconsistent play, transfer-heavy team, and the injury.
As for my penny stock plays, Mestemaker and JKs are the only players in the country priced below 3¢ that I think have a feasible path to being in the Heisman conversation. Both are the best players on their team, produced in their first years as starters, and play for programs that I'm expecting to improve this season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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