The weakest of the Power 4 conferences has a handful of coaches on the hot seat heading into the season, but two stand above the rest in the ACC when it comes to incompetence — and both have ties to the New England Patriots.
Both teams are among my favorites to fade in my 2026 ACC win total predictions and college football picks; meanwhile, the only two programs in the conference with new head coaches are my two best bets to go Over their win totals this season.
2026 ACC win totals: Best bets
Here are my favorite ACC win total bets for the 2026 season. Looking for another school? Find my complete win total picks for all 17 teams at the bottom of the page.
| Team | Win total | Best bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
 California |
6.5 | Over | +125 |
 Virginia Tech |
6.5 | Over | -170 |
 Boston College |
3.5 | Under | -120 |
 North Carolina |
4.5 | Under | +110 |
Favorite ACC Over win total bets
California Over 6.5 wins (+125)
Before Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele showed up at California, the Golden Bears had not reached seven regular-season wins since 2019. In his freshman season at Cal, he led the program to seven wins and caught the attention of everyone willing to stay up for ACC After Dark games.
JKS showed so much potential that he's among the most popular Heisman Trophy odds long shots this season and has already been pegged as a future first-round pick in the NFL draft.
So even with Cal hiring a new head coach, Tosh Lupoi, it's hard not to be bullish about the Golden Bears' potential this season.
Lupoi came in knowing the key to his success is adding more talent around his QB — JKS was second nationally in EPA lost to drops last season — and spent the offseason bolstering the talent around him.
Cal landed the 14th-best transfer portal class in the nation, led by playmakers like Adam Mohammed (Washington), Ian Strong (Rutgers), Chase Hendricks (Ohio), and Dorian Thomas (New Mexico).
The defense is the bigger question, but it's the side of the ball Lupoi coached at Oregon under Dan Lanning, and he brought a few Ducks with him to Berkley.
Oregon transfers like Jericho Johnson and Kingston Lopa will raise the floor of a unit that returns Isaiah Crosby and Nate Burrell.
Cal and Lupoi also have the benefit of a schedule featuring three ACC teams with a win total of 5.5 or lower, plus two non-P4 non-conference games.
Virginia Tech Over 6.5 wins (-170)
Virginia Tech is the program everyone expects to turn it around in Year 1 under its new head coach. With James Franklin taking over in Blacksburg, Brad Powers has tabbed the Hokies as one of the most improved teams in college football, and I'm right there with him.
Franklin got the Penn State band back together in a conference where it's far easier to win, and where his seat won't be nearly as hot.
While restoring Virginia Tech to the glory days of Frank Beamer isn't happening in 2026, winning at least seven games seems very achievable with a roster that's fourth nationally in returning production (69%).
Franklin not only brought several key players from Penn State to Blacksburg, including QB Ethan Grunkemeyer, but he also brought Brent Pry back as defensive coordinator.
This same program fired Pry as head coach less than a year ago, but he's a proven P4 defensive coordinator, and his understanding of the program/roster should help Franklin in Year 1.
With former Nittany Lions like Grunkemeyer, Luke Reynolds, and Keon Wylie leading a Top 30 portal class, and key cogs like Kemari Copeland, Marcellous Hawkins, Ayden Greene, and Isaiah Brown-Murray back, the Hokies are positioned to win at least seven games for the first time since 2019.
Favorite ACC Under win total bets
Boston College Under 3.5 wins (-120)
There's an argument to be made that Boston College will be the worst P4 team in the country this season; after all, in Powers' ACC preview, he says his power ratings project the Eagles to be favored in just one game — against their lone FCS opponent (Maine).
Bill O'Brien has done nothing to inspire confidence in Chestnut Hill after going 2-10 last season, the program's fewest wins since 2012.
To remedy the issue, the former New England Patriots offensive coordinator did very little. BC brought in a transfer portal class ranked 60th in the country.
There's not much new talent to be overly excited about in the transfer class, other than running back Evan Dickens (Liberty), and that includes the new starting QB.
Saginaw Valley State transfer Mason McKenzie is the QB1, and while his mobility could help the offense, expecting an FCS QB with a 17:11 TD:INT ratio to lift a P4 offense is a lot to ask.
Boston College's schedule doesn't help its shot at winning Over 3.5 games, either. The Eagles have one of the hardest schedules in the ACC — No. 39 nationally in SOS (.565) — including three of its four non-conference games being against P4 opponents.
North Carolina Under 4.5 wins (+110)
Speaking of former Patriots head coaches, Bill Belichick seems to be as checked out as any coach in the P4. North Carolina was a mess in his first season at the helm, and the program made more headlines for Belichick's relationship than for its play.
This offseason hasn't been any better than last year's, with his handpicked GM, Michael Lombardi, on paid administrative leave and his son/defensive coordinator, Steve Belichick, on medical leave.
On the field, UNC brings in a portal class ranked 52nd in the country, made up mostly of backups from other P4 programs. Its lack of proven talent is a big reason why the Tar Heels rank 103rd nationally in returning production (44%).
The new offensive coordinator-QB combo isn't inspiring either. Bobby Petrino is an odd fit with a team that wants to lean on its defense, and Billy Edwards Jr. has long struggled as a starter against P4 opponents.
The real salt in the wound, though, is the schedule. North Carolina's schedule is No. 1 nationally in SOS (.652).
Complete 2026 ACC win totals & picks for every team
| Team | Win total | Best bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College |
3.5 | Under | -120 |
| California |
6.5 | Over | +125 |
 Clemson |
7.5 | Over | -134 |
 Duke |
5.5 | Over | -130 |
 Florida State |
6.5 | Under | -175 |
 Georiga Tech |
6.5 | Over | +118 |
 Louisiville |
7.5 | Over | -180 |
 Miami |
10.5 | Over | -110 |
 NC State |
7.5 | Over | +120 |
| North Carolina |
4.5 | Under | +110 |
 Pittsburgh |
7.5 | Under | +125 |
 SMU |
8.5 | Over | -136 |
 Stanford |
3.5 | Under | +105 |
 Syracuse |
4.5 | Under | -105 |
 Virginia |
7.5 | Over | -138 |
| Virginia Tech |
6.5 | Over | -170 |
 Wake Forest |
5.5 | Over | -170 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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