The Florida State Seminoles visit the North Carolina State Wolfpack on Friday night, with the winner becoming bowl eligible.
My Florida State vs. NC State same-game parlay money is on the Seminoles getting the job done, thanks to QB Tommy Castellanos using his arm to pick apart a suspect Wolpack secondary.
For even more college football picks for this ACC matchup, check out my Florida State vs. North Carolina State predictions.
Florida State vs NC State same-game parlay
It's been a roller coaster season for the Florida State Seminoles, who followed up a 3-0 start, including an upset of Alabama, with a four-game losing streak. But one constant is the play of QB Tommy Castellanos.
The dual-threat QB has thrived in Gus Malzahn’s offense, throwing for 2,317 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions, while adding another 404 yards and eight scores on the ground.
The Seminoles' signal-caller has started to sling it better lately, averaging 246.1 passing yards over his last seven games, and he should keep cooking against a North Carolina State Wolfpack secondary that has been burned like toast.
The Wolfpack are also 5-5, dropping three of four, and the pass defense has been a big problem.
During this four-game stretch, NC State has been torched for 367 passing yards against Miami, 408 against Georgia Tech, 423 against Pitt, and 342 against Notre Dame. Overall, the Wolfpack rank 78th in EPA per dropback and 79th in defensive success rate on dropbacks.
Castellanos’ passing prop is 235.5, a number he’s topped in six of his last seven games, and he should cruise Over it once again against this suspect Wolfpack secondary.
His favorite target is wideout Duce Robinson, an explosive deep-ball threat, catching 49 balls for 947 yards and five scores. That’s nearly 20 yards per reception, and NC State has been susceptible to giving up explosive plays. Robinson has scored in two of the last three games, and I like him to find the end zone once again.
The Seminoles have solid wins over Wake Forest and Virginia Tech in the last three weeks, while the Wolfpack have allowed at least 36 points in four straight games. Florida State will set the tone with its offense and get just enough stops on defense to win and cover this spread.
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