The Florida State Seminoles will kick off their 2022 campaign with what they hope will be an easy breezy blowout victory against Duquesne at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday.
However, these same Noles suffered a loss to Jacksonville State — another FCS foe — just a year ago as 27.5-point home favorites and enter this weekend's matchup against the Dukes as an even bigger 38.5-point chalk.
Despite bringing back most of its offensive core, can FSU be expected to cover a number of this size? Find out in our college football betting picks and predictions for Duquesne vs. Florida State.
Duquesne vs Florida State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Florida State hit the board as large 34.5-point home favorites and have since been bet up to -38.5 at BetVictor. The Over/Under opened at 54.5 juiced to the Under but has also gone up a full point to 55.5, now leaning towards the Over. Expect both of these lines to continue shifting ahead of kickoff on Saturday.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Duquesne vs Florida State predictions
Predictions made on 8/25/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Duquesne vs Florida State game info
• Location: Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
• Date: Saturday, August 27, 2021
• Kick-off: 5:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ACC Network
Duquesne vs Florida State betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Duquesne: No key injuries to report.
Florida State: Ja'khi Douglas WR (Out), CJ Campbell RB (Out), Kayden Lyles OL (Out).
Find our latest College football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Seminoles are 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Duquesne vs. Florida State.
Duquesne vs Florida State picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Florida State has been in a bit of an extended rut since Jimbo Fisher's exit as head coach in 2017. They've yet to have a winning season and are just 19-27 across its last four campaigns. Now entering Year 3 under Mike Norvell, the Noles should be well-positioned to get back on track in 2022 thanks in part to a ton of returning production.
Quarterback Jordan Travis returns for his senior season after throwing for 1,539 yards, 15 touchdowns, and six interceptions in addition to 530 yards and seven scores on the ground. The run game will be led by a returning Treshaun Ward, who ran for over 500 yards and four TDs on an ACC-best 6.36 yards per carry.
Out wide, the Noles will likely roll out senior Ontaria Wilson (led the team in receiving yards and TDs in 2021), sophomore Malik McClain, as well as Oregon transfer Mycah Pittman (yes, brother of Michael Pittman Jr.). With assistance from a decent ground game and a veteran O-line, this offense should see some real improvements.
On the other side is a Duquesne squad that shouldn't be overlooked. Yes, this is just an FCS program, but one that went 7-3 last season — including an FBS victory over Ohio as 28.5-point road pups.
Like FSU, the Dukes return much of their core, including signal-caller Darrius Perrates (1,620 yards, 17 TDs, six INTs in 2021) and lead back Billy Lucas (699 yards, six TDs). They'll have continuity on the sidelines (Jerry Schmitt enters his 18th year as HC) as well as on offense and shouldn't be that intimidated by another FBS opponent.
While the Seminoles will have size, speed, and talent advantages at nearly every position, a 40-point victory needed to cover this large number requires a polished effort from all three units. That feels like too much to ask in a season-opening matchup from what has been a middling program of late (3-9 ATS in the last 12 non-conference games).
I don't expect the Dukes to threaten FSU as Jacksonville State did a year ago, but they should be able to move the ball enough to avoid a blowout of this magnitude.
On top of that, the Noles could take their foot off the gas ahead of their Week 1 matchup with LSU. Take every single one of these points and run.
Prediction: Duquesne +38.5 (-110 at BetVictor)
Over/Under analysis
The total hit the board for this opener at 54.5 and has since gone up a shade to 55.5. Despite that upwards movement, I'm leaning towards the Under.
I talked at the onset about each of these offenses and their returning cores, but those units could still lack some rhythm to start the game and season. The Noles went 8-4 to the Under in 2021, including 3-1 in their first four matchups and an ugly 17-point showing against Jacksonville State (zero combined points in the first quarter).
If/when the Noles really pull away in the second or third quarter, they'll be more concerned with getting it to the finish line safely and without injury as a big road matchup with LSU looms next Saturday. That means relying on the run game and controlling the clock, which ultimately lends itself to a low-scoring second half or final frame.
Getting this contest to the mid-50s and beyond will likely require some significant help from the Dukes — help you shouldn't be banking on as the clock winds down Saturday evening. Even a 35 or 40-point showing from the Seminoles may not be enough to get this Over.
Prediction: Under 55.5 (-108 at BetVictor)
Best bet
With almost no alternate offerings available for this game at the time of writing, I'm opting to roll with the Dukes as my best bet.
We know what happened last year against Jacksonville State, and while this FSU team should be better, it could take time before we see that show in the results (0-4 to start last year, finished 5-7).
For Duquesne, it may only take a score or two to put this astronomical number out of reach as the Noles look ahead to LSU.
Pick: Duquesne +38.5 (-110 at BetVictor)
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