As we roll into the Saturday nightcap, whether we are up or down on the day, we will be looking for a way to finish on a high note with our college football picks.
Not to get too crazy in Week 0, but here are a few college football long-shot picks worth looking into.
College Football long-shot picks for Saturday night
| Game | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Memphis vs  UNLV |
Over 70.5 | 20% |
 Hawaiivs  Stanford |
Hawaii team total Over 30.5 | 22% |
 New Mexico Statevs  Florida State |
Florida State team total Over 51.5 | 28% |
| 💰 All three parlayed | 3-leg combo | 5.81x |
Lines courtesy of Kalshi as of Aug. 29 and subject to change. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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College football long-shot picks & predictions
Memphis vs UNLV Over 70.5
Last season, both of these teams finished inside the Top 20 in points per game, so this could easily turn into one of the highest-scoring games of Week 0.
Phil Steele's projections offer some interesting support, with both offenses expected to average north of 31 points per game this season.
He does expect UNLV's defense, which allowed 28 points per game last season, to be slightly better this year. However, Memphis is replacing all 11 defensive starters after allowing more than 24 points per game in 2025.
That could create plenty of opportunities for the Rebels, who have former Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold leading the offense. A quarterback with Power 4 experience should have every opportunity to carve up an American Conference defense breaking in an entirely new starting unit.
At better than 3-to-1, this could be a fun sweat if both teams start trading touchdowns and push toward the mid-30s.
Hawaii Team Total Over 30.5
I have already written about how high I am on Hawaii this weekend. If you are unfamiliar with Rainbow Warriors quarterback Micah Alejado, do yourself a favor and tune into this game Saturday night.
He is a 5-foot-10 firecracker, and exactly the kind of quarterback college football die-hards can fall in love with long after his playing career is over.
You can read more about why I am backing Hawaii in my college football Hate Bets for Week 0.
Alejado did lose his top receiver to the transfer portal this offseason, but he has also had a full year to recover from the ankle injury he suffered in this matchup last season and continue developing under Timmy Chang.
With another year in the system, he should still be capable of lighting it up regardless of who is lining up alongside him.
Hawaii averaged nearly 30 points per game last season, while Phil Steele projects the Rainbow Warriors to score around 27 points per game this year. Our college football player prop projections also have Alejado going over his passing yards prop, while Steele projects Hawai'i to average roughly 375 yards of offense per game.
At nearly 3-to-1, backing an improved and healthy quarterback to lead his offense past 30 points is well worth the squeeze.
Florida State Over 51.5 Points
We are simply asking Mike Norvell and Florida State to score a little more than seven touchdowns Saturday evening against a New Mexico State defense that allowed more than 400 yards and 30 points per game last season.
Phil Steele projects the Aggies to improve defensively in 2026, but that does not mean they are suddenly going to become a shutdown unit against a Power 4 program in Week 0.
Florida State averaged 37 points per game at home last season and scored more than 66 points in each of its games against Group of Five opponents.
Norvell's offense did take a significant hit this offseason, losing plenty of talent along with its offensive coordinator. Still, this is a program that continues to recruit at a high level, and there should be enough talent on the field to run up the score against New Mexico State in the season opener.
College football long-shot combo
Memphis/UNLV Over 70.5
Hawaii team total Over 30.5
Florida State team total Over 51.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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