In a rematch of last year's blowout win for TCU, the Horned Frogs are a 9.5-point favorite against Bill Belichick's North Carolina program in the opening game of the college football season from Aviva Stadium in Dublin on Saturday at noon ET (ESPN).
With the history of low-scoring games in Dublin, my North Carolina vs. TCU parlays and college football picks are heavily focused on backing both offenses to struggle, especially early.
Best North Carolina vs TCU combos for Week 0
Best North Carolina vs TCU combo
Under 46.5
TCU -9.5
The top pick from my North Carolina vs. TCU prediction is the Under in Ireland for four reasons: the history of low-scoring games at Aviva Stadium, the weather, both teams debuting new starting QBs (both transfers), and North Carolina's offensive struggles in Bill Belichick's first season.
Last year, the Tar Heels were 124th in SP+ on offense and scored 20 points or fewer in nine of 11 games against FBS opponents. This year, they're starting a transfer QB in Billy Edwards Jr., who has had minimal success against Power Four opponents.
TCU is also starting a transfer in Jaden Craig and has a new offensive coordinator in Gordon Sammis. While they will likely get off to a slow start, Craig is a far more talented QB — third in the FCS in big-time throw rate (8.6%) at Harvard last season — and should do enough against a UNC defense without coordinator Steve Belichick (medical leave).
The last three Week 0 games at Aviva Stadium have finished with a game total of exactly 45 points (I like the Under at 45.5 or better). Each of those games dealt with wet conditions; the same type of weather is expected this year.
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North Carolina vs TCU team total combo
TCU Under 29.5
North Carolina Under 17.5
For as bullish as I am on TCU, particularly because of Craig at QB, it's hard to ask a college team to have much offensive success when they're traveling several time zones to play in a wet game with a new QB and coordinator, which is why I wouldn't take TCU at a spread larger than -9.5. (Not to mention top wide receiver Jordan Dwyer is dealing with a foot injury.)
It's fair to assume that TCU could get off to a slow start as its offense meshes. And even with UNC being down its defensive coordinator, the Tar Heels have the pieces to be a competent defense yet again. They were 34th in EPA per pass and 30th in early-down EPA per play on defense last year.
It's an even bigger ask for North Carolina to have offensive success in Week 0 with Edwards and new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. The Tar Heels were outside the Top 70 in EPA per rush and pass last year, and Edwards hasn't shown much promise in his career.
The Horned Frogs have continuity on defense, too - No. 42 in returning defensive production (58%) - and were one of the better run defenses last season (No. 15 in EPA per rush on defense).Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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