Today's Aer Lingus College Football Classic pits the TCU Horned Frogs against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland.
You'll want to consult our North Carolina vs. TCU expert picks before kickoff, as our panel is calling for a low-scoring clash this Saturday, Aug. 29.
North Carolina vs TCU expert picks
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: Under 46.5 |
49% |
 Rob Paul: Under 46.5 |
49% |
 C Jackson Cowart: TCU -9.5 |
48% |
 Colby Marchio: UNC +9.5 |
52% |
 Chris Vasile: TCU 2+ receiving TDs — No |
47% |
Prices courtesy of Kalshi.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS35' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $35 — including college football!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Brad Powers' expert pick: Under 46.5
Price: 49% at Kalshi
This is a slower grass surface in Ireland, and we’ve seen lower scoring opening games each of the last three years here. Each game featured a combined score of 45 points, and each game went Under the total by an average of 6.8 points per game.
Both teams have brand new transfer quarterbacks, and I expect a “feeling out” process early.
Despite the 4-8 record last year, the Tar Heels were competent defensively, ranking No. 25 in yards allowed per play.
Rob Paul's expert pick: Under 46.5
Price: 49% at Kalshi
It's not the luck of the Irish that has led the last three games at Aviva Stadium to finish with exactly 45 points; it's the impact of asking college teams to travel multiple time zones to open the season in a game that has consistently seen rain.
This year's game could get off to an extra slow offensive start, too, with North Carolina (Billy Edwards Jr.) and TCU (Jaden Craig) both breaking in transfer QBs. The Tar Heels could be in especially bad shape after finishing 124th in SP+ on offense last year and ranking outside the Top 100 in early-down EPA per play.
However, UNC had a Top 40 defense last year, and it should slow TCU down enough for the Under.
C Jackson Cowart's expert pick: TCU -9.5
Price: 48% at Kalshi
I may bleed Carolina blue, but I don't back programs who are flat-lining before our very eyes. The Tar Heels improved their roster from last year's rag-tag group that TCU ran off the field in the opener, though the offseason has been rife with off-field turmoil and defensive coordinator Steve Belichick (medical leave) won't travel with the team to Ireland.
That leaves enough margin for me to lay the big number on the Horned Frogs behind new QB Jaden Craig, who lit it up last year as an aggressive deep-shot merchant for Harvard. If he hits one or two of those downfield bombs in his FBS debut, this one should be a wrap.
Colby Marchio's expert pick: UNC +9.5
Price: 52% at Kalshi
Despite an embarrassing first season under NFL legend Bill Belichick, the North Carolina Tar Heels are an easy fade target to kick off the 2026 college football season. However, everything surrounding this matchup, including the travel, preparation and the looming possibility of visiting the Guinness Brewery, could lead to TCU overlooking them after demolishing the Tar Heels by 34 points at home nearly a year ago.
North Carolina made some positive moves this offseason, including bringing in Bobby Petrino to spark the offense. Its defense was the team's saving grace last season and should be good enough to keep this game close.
With weather potentially limiting scoring, the Tar Heels have an opportunity to keep it close.
Chris Vasile's expert pick: TCU 2+ receiving TDs — No
Price: 47% at Kalshi
TCU is breaking in Harvard transfer Jaden Craig at quarterback, and I don't expect the Horned Frogs to ask him to carry the offense through the air in his first Power Four start. New OC Gordon Sammis is expected to lean more heavily on the run game and physicality up front, which makes two receiving touchdowns a pretty aggressive ask.
After TCU piled up 258 rushing yards against UNC last season, I'm betting the Horned Frogs try to win this game on the ground first and let Craig settle in.
How to watch North Carolina vs TCU
| Location | Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland |
| Date | Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
