Carlos Hernandez headlines my college football anytime touchdown picks for Saturday, Nov. 14, with Wake Forest’s most productive receiver facing an SMU defense dealing with several absences.
My five college football picks cover five different matchups, starting at noon and finishing with Washington State’s late game against Colorado State.
Best Week 11 college football anytime touchdown picks
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Carlos Hernandez |
|
 Mike Matthews |
|
 Jaleel Skinner |
|
 Braden Pegan |
|
 Daniel Blood |
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Pick #1: Carlos Hernandez anytime touchdown
Carlos Hernandez is my headline and favorite of the week because his involvement gives him several chances to finish a drive.
Against FBS opponents, he has caught 57 of 74 targets for 856 yards, generating 11.57 yards per target. That combination of reliable catches and substantial gains makes him dangerous both near the goal line and before Wake Forest gets there.
This is the game that could determine whether Wake makes the ACC Championship; quite simply, they will be targeting "their guy."
The metrics rank Wake Forest eighth in adjusted offensive EPA per play, while SMU sits 77th defensively. The Mustangs have also listed multiple defensive backs out, with safeties Ahmaad Moses and Jaden Milliner-Jones questionable.
That could make it harder to maintain coverage against Hernandez over four quarters.
- Matchup: Wake Forest vs. SMU
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 14 at noon ET
- Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, Texas
- TV: ESPN
Pick #2: Mike Matthews anytime touchdown
Mike Matthews accounts for four of Tennessee’s 10 receiving touchdowns, with 37 catches for 566 yards. He has also scored on the ground, giving Josh Heupel another way to get his best receiving threat involved near the end zone.
Texas A&M ranks 13th in adjusted defensive EPA per play, so the matchup deserves respect. However, the Aggies allow 7.36 yards per opposing dropback, compared with a rushing success rate allowed of just 36.8%.
My read is that Tennessee’s cleaner route to an explosive touchdown could come through the air.
The price is reflective of his volume, but I can very much see a scenario where the Vols spend some time chasing this game, which makes this price point all the more appealing
- Matchup: Tennessee vs. Texas A&M
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 14 at 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
- TV: ESPN
Pick #3: Jaleel Skinner anytime touchdown
The longest shot on our board targets one of the country's more underrated talents.
Against FBS opponents, Jaleel Skinner has caught 18 of 23 targets, averaging 10.87 yards per target. At 6-foot-5, he also gives Louisville a sizable receiving option when space gets tight.
North Carolina ranks 114th in defensive havoc rate, creating disruption on just 12.5% of plays.
That supports the case for Louisville having time to develop its passing concepts, including opportunities for Skinner off play action when defenders react to the Cardinals’ dangerous rushing attack.
Louisville can move the ball in several ways here, and Skinner offers a less expensive route into its passing touchdowns.
- Matchup: Louisville vs. North Carolina
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 14 at 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Kenan Memorial Stadium, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
- TV: ESPN2
Pick #4: Braden Pegan anytime touchdown
We hit him last week; why not try again?
Braden Pegan has scored seven of Utah’s 17 passing touchdowns against FBS opponents, giving him a much larger share of the aerial scoring than a typical receiver. His 66 targets also comfortably lead the Utes in those games.
Arizona’s defense presents a mixed matchup. The Wildcats limit passing success, but they rank 126th in explosive plays allowed, with opponents producing one on 9.4% of their snaps.
That creates an opening for Utah to turn a few passing opportunities into a touchdown. Arizona’s secondary also has several availability concerns, including questionable cornerback Jay’Vion Cole.
- Matchup: Utah vs. Arizona
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Casino De Sol Stadium, Tucson, Ariz.
- TV: FOX
Pick #5: Daniel Blood anytime touchdown
Colorado State gives Washington State’s passing game its most inviting matchup of the season. The Rams rank 138th nationally in adjusted defensive EPA per play, allowing successful plays on 58.3% of opposing snaps.
They also surrender 10.96 yards per dropback, creating opportunities for receivers to score before an offense reaches the goal line.
Daniel Blood has caught 18 passes for 207 yards across Owen Eshelman’s three starts, including eight receptions for 105 yards in Washington State’s latest outing at San Diego State.
His recent involvement gives us a receiver getting consistent opportunities against a defense struggling to stop either sustained possessions or explosive gains.
At less than 50%, I’m willing to back Blood’s recent workload in a matchup that should give Washington State more chances to finish drives.
- Matchup: Washington State vs. Colorado State
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 14 at 10:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Gesa Field, Pullman, Washington
- TV: CBS Sports Network
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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