College football Week 13 betting is a test of nerve and nuance. Whether you're weighing a side, shopping totals, or placing live bets, it demands a sharper plan than nearly any other Saturday on the calendar.
In a wide ranging conversation with Joe Osborne, Brad Powers delivers his favorite NCAAF picks and explains how to turn the chaos into clear, actionable edges.
Hawaii vs 
UNLV best bet
Pick: Hawaii +3 (-105 at FanDuel)
Powers like Hawaii for a variety of reasons, beginning with scheduling.
"I like this spot for Hawaii because they're off a bye and they're catching UNLV off an overtime game playing on a short week," he explains.
He also thinks the Rainbow Warriors are a vastly underrated team.
"Hawaii has not been getting a lot of love this year," he says. "They weren't even projected to make a bowl game and their season win total is 5.5. UNLV is coming off their best two-year performance in school history, so I think we've still got some of their prior success baked into this."
Powers also expects Hawaii to have something of a home field advantage, despite playing in Sin City.
"I went to this game three different times when I was in Vegas, and I think Hawaii will have 40-to-50% of the crowd," he says. "That's what they had in the three meetings that I saw when I was there. The people on the islands like to call Las Vegas the ninth island. They'll have a lot of fans in the stands."
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Pittsburgh vs 
Georgia Tech best bet
Pick: Georgia Tech -2.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Powers expects a competitive game, but believes the Yellow Jackets will be especially motivated to win.
"This one's simple for me," he says. "It's a must-win for both, but if Georgia Tech wins then they're in the ACC championship game."
He feels Georgia Tech has several factors working in its favor.
"I think they're the slightly better team, they're at home, they have the much more experience, and a better quarterback in Haynes King," he explains. "And for me, they have the much better coaching staff. I know Georgia Tech almost lost last week, but I think they're feeling good about themselves from that big fourth quarter rally against Boston College. I don't know where Pitt's mind is."
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College football playoff race and implications
Oklahoma's upset of Alabama wasn't just a headline, it was a reshaping of the bracket. The Sooners not only vaulted into the conversation, they positioned themselves as favorites the rest of the way. If they avoid a stumble, their path likely ends in a playoff berth, the kind of late-season surge that makes November feel like January.
The win also compresses the bubble. With Oklahoma surging, the final at-large lane tightens for everyone else, forcing contenders to root as much as they play. Powers underscores the fragility of the last spot: the contender that sneaks in will almost certainly need results elsewhere to break perfectly in their favor.
"Whoever is the final team in that lineup, they are going to need things to play out accordingly for them to make the playoffs," Powers says.
That's why conference championships loom as de facto quarterfinals. The committee tends to reward clean résumés and momentum, but margin for error is evaporating. The combination of Oklahoma's rise and tight races in the ACC and elsewhere sets up a selection-night debate that will hinge on strength-of-schedule nuance, how teams finish, and who claims their conference.
Major upsets and comeback performances
Oklahoma's shocker over Alabama was the plot twist, but the week's broader theme was resilience. Multiple teams clawed back from deficits, turning late possessions into season-saving drives. Beyond pure drama, those reversals reshaped expectations: odds moved, power ratings adjusted, and teams that once looked vulnerable reclaimed an edge in the perception game.
Powers underscores the maturity it takes to win on days when everything does not go to script. Championship-caliber squads aren't just fast and physical; they are stubborn. They manage the clock, own critical downs, and survive waves of adversity that sink lesser contenders.
"That's what championship teams do," he says. "They don't roll over and die. So, kudos for Texas A&M for that one."
For bettors, these comebacks are more than moral victories. They can indicate sticky intangibles (two-minute offense, defensive rotations, quarterback composure) that drive late-season covers. Upsets recalibrate markets, but the teams that consistently flip games in the fourth quarter often outperform point spreads down the stretch.
Heisman Trophy contenders and voter sentiment
The Heisman race, at least in the eyes of many voters, has already congealed around Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, with Texas A&M's Marcel Reed and Ohio State's Julian Sayin chasing. Powers acknowledges that statistical cases exist for Reed, but he cautioned that the human element - perception built over months - can be stubborn. In a close race, familiarity and narrative cohesion often trump late surges in efficiency metrics.
"I think a lot have made up their mind," he says. "So, as far as Marcel Reed, I think it's an okay bet. He's obviously behind not only Mendoza, but also Julian Singh."
This is why Reed at +550 is a true long shot rather than a mispriced gem. To flip sentiment, he likely needs both a signature, nationally resonant performance and slippage from Mendoza. Voter psychology is path-dependent; once a frontrunner emerges, it takes unmistakable moments to dislodge them.
For market players, the lesson is to price the human factor. If you still like Reed, consider pairing his ticket with correlated positions such as his team's moneyline in a spotlight game so that if a narrative-shifting night arrives, you capture value on both fronts. Otherwise, Mendoza backers can look to hedge only if the final week introduces genuine chaos.
Betting strategies and value picks
Powers' futures card this week leans on schedule leverage and realistic playoff paths. He identifies James Madison at +250 and Virginia at +290 to make the playoff as numbers that still reflect uncertainty the field hasn't fully priced. The edge comes from being favored the rest of the way, or at least in the bulk of their remaining tests, while rivals face tougher landmines.
"James Madison will be a clear-cut favorite in their remaining three games," he says. "I can't say that for North Texas in their championship game."
Conference championship scenarios
The ACC, which felt opaque a few weeks ago, now looks surprisingly straightforward: if Georgia Tech and Virginia both take care of business as favorites, they are headed to the title game. Powers likes the Jackets' specific matchup dynamics and their experience at quarterback, but he also underscored that the stakes are symmetrical and urgency will be palpable on both sidelines.
An ACC crown for either team would reshape postseason math. A Georgia Tech championship paired with Oklahoma's surge tightens the squeeze on at-large hopefuls; a Virginia run would test the committee's appetite for résumés built on timing and upward arcs. In both cases, the ripple effects reach well beyond Charlotte.
This is also where the playoff bubble turns emotional. As Oklahoma firms up, the number of chairs in musical chairs shrinks. Bubble teams without conference leverage will need a cocktail of upsets and style points, reinforcing Powers' earlier caution that some candidates must rely as much on the scoreboard elsewhere as their own.
