Neither the Miami Hurricanes nor the Mississippi Rebels were expected to make it to the College Football Playoff semifinals. Both closed as about touchdown underdogs in the quarterfinals, and thanks to those two upsets, we may have a very unpredictable Fiesta Bowl on Wednesday, January 8.
My early Mississippi vs. Miami predictions and college football picks will trust the unit playing the best at the moment, one that has been a standout all season.
Mississippi vs Miami predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Mississippi vs Miami spread pick: Miami -3.5
Miami defensive ends Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. are playing too well right now to do anything but bet on them. The duo has combined for 7.5 sacks in two Playoff games, only part of the Hurricanes’ 12 total sacks in those two games.
Does Mississippi enjoy the best offensive line Miami has faced in the Playoff? Arguably, but only arguably. Both Texas A&M and Ohio State gave up higher pressure rates this season — No. 21 at 27.6% and No. 30 at 28.4%, respectively, compared to the Rebels at No. 4 in the country at 23.2%, per CFB-graphs.com. But A&M quarterback Marcel Reed was much more of a scramble threat than Trinidad Chambliss, and Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin was better at getting the ball out amid pressure.
Thus, Reed scrambled nearly twice as often as Chambliss does, and Sayin was sacked far less often, both in number and in damage done via the sacks.
Expect Mesidor and Bain to disrupt Mississippi’s offense all on their own, a luxury provided by a dominant defensive line like this.
And then expect the Hurricanes’ offense to find success against a relatively middling Rebels’ defense. In particular, Miami running back Mark Fletcher Jr. should break loose against a defense prone to giving up successes on a sustainable rate of rushing attempts.
Early Mississippi vs Miami total pick: Under 51.5
If the Miami blueprint is defensive chaos plus rushing success, that is obviously setting up this game for an Under.
Keep in mind, 51 is a relatively important number in college football totals betting.
The Hurricanes will seek to slow down this game, to force Trinidad Chambliss to replicate his stellar showing in the second half of the Sugar Bowl. He is clearly capable of that, but that kind of performance is also rather unlikely, particularly against a defense that is considerably better than Georgia’s.
Mississippi vs Miami odds
- Mississippi vs. Miami spread: Miami -3.5
- Mississippi vs. Miami moneyline: Mississippi +128, Miami -154
- Mississippi vs. Miami Over/Under: 51.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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