The Notre Dame Fighting Irish know they need to run up the score every week the rest of the season to have any hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff.
That should make for an entertaining welcome to the Boise State Broncos on their first visit to South Bend.
My Boise State vs. Notre Dame predictions focus on the Irish offense, which Notre Dame hopes the selection committee eventually will do, as well.
Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Boise State vs Notre Dame prediction
Boise State vs Notre Dame best bet: Notre Dame team total Over 41.5 (-115)
Notre Dame has scored 56 points in each of its last two games. That is not simply a result of blowouts, though they were.
The Irish know they need to impress on the scoreboard the rest of the season to have any hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff.
Call it a full Cignetti. This is how Indiana reached the Playoff last year.
And like the Hoosiers, Notre Dame may have the offensive firepower to leave such an impression. Even before this became an absolute necessity, the Irish hung 40 points on Texas A&M. The Aggies’ defense is far better than any other awaiting Notre Dame the rest of the season.
ESPN.com’s SP+ ratings consider Texas A&M to have the No. 26 defense in the country, more than a touchdown better than Boise State’s at No. 62.
In terms of expected points added (EPA) per snap, cfb-graphs.com sets the Aggies at No. 30, knocking opponents relatively backward by 0.008 points per snap, well ahead of the Broncos at No. 76.
The Irish know they need these points. There was a reason Marcus Freeman called a fake punt late in a blowout at Arkansas. More points equal a better Playoff chance.
Notre Dame will remain aggressive offensively, defensively, and on special teams well past the usual easing point. That should equal at least six touchdowns.
Boise State vs Notre Dame same-game parlay
The key question is who the Irish will still prioritize in a blowout.
As much as Notre Dame routed Arkansas, looking at the 56-point avalanche against Purdue is more informative. That game may have been closer on the scoreboard, but the Irish game plan had more confidence of a rout than the trip to Fayetteville did.
The first play from scrimmage for Notre Dame? A 66-yard touchdown strike to Malachi Fields.
And who got the most carries where they matter most? Jadarian Price, scoring three times on the ground.
Boise State vs Notre Dame 3-leg SGP
- Notre Dame team total Over 41.5
- Jadarian Price anytime touchdown
- Malachi Fields Over 53.5 receiving yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Worth the Price
Jadarian Price had eight carries within scoring territory in Notre Dame's blowout of Purdue two weeks ago, resulting in three touchdowns. The workload stands out. Oh, and he returned a kickoff for a touchdown.
As for thinking the Irish defense will give up multiple touchdowns to Maddux Madsen, that is simply an expectation of an open game where Boise State is trying to keep up.
Boise State vs Notre Dame 4-leg SGP
- Notre Dame team total Over 41.5
- Jadarian Price anytime touchdown
- Malachi Fields Over 53.5 receiving yards
- Maddux Madsen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Boise State vs Notre Dame odds
- Spread: Boise State +20.5 (-110) | Notre Dame -20.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Boise State +750 | Notre Dame -1200
- Over/Under: Over 62.5 (-110) | Under 62.5 (-110)
Boise State vs Notre Dame trend to know
Asking for 42 points may seem like a stiff ask from a former defensive coordinator like Marcus Freeman, but realize the Irish have scored at least 42 points in two of their four games this season, as well as in seven of their last 11 regular-season games. Find more college football betting trends for Boise State vs Notre Dame.
How to watch Boise State vs Notre Dame
| Location | Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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