It’s hard to believe it’s already Week 6 in college football, and that means a few things. We have some sneaky important conference matchups, and more importantly, the return of the most significant trend in sports.
That’s right, service academy unders are back as Navy hosts Air Force. Iowa State must rely on Rocco Becht in an under-the-radar must-win game for the Cyclones. And can Vanderbilt do the unthinkable by beating Alabama in back-to-back seasons?
For even more college football picks for Week 6, check out Douglas Farmer’s Week 6 college football predictions.
College football best bets Week 6
Air Force-Navy u52.5 (
Rocco Becht Over 1.5 Passing TDs (
Vanderbilt +10.5 (Air Force-Navy Under 52.5
You know what time it is. That’s right. It’s Service Academy Under time!
The undefeated Navy Midshipmen host the Air Force Falcons this week, and for those of you who have been living under a rock for the last several years, Unders have been insanely profitable.
In fact, the Under is 45-11-1 in the last 57 meetings between service academy programs. That’s a cash rate of 80.5%. But with a success rate so high, oddmakers predictably adjusted. To the point where we were seeing totals in the high 20s for these matchups.
Now, last year we finally saw the Overs go 2-1, which included this matchup last year, where the Midshipmen beat the Falcons 34-7 with a total of 37.5.
A reason for this is that both Army and Navy were good last season. And with QB Blake Horvath back for another season in Annapolis, the Midshipmen are primed for another big year and are already 4-0.
Meanwhile, Air Force has a young roster and is 1-3 heading into this matchup. So, it’s not a surprise that Navy is a 12.5-point favorite in this year’s matchup.
But it’s not like the first time there have been heavy favorites in these matchups over the years. And the overwhelming result has been tight, low-scoring matchups. That’s because no one can defend a triple-option offense like a team that runs a triple option. Plus, this style of offense means fewer possessions.
All that said, it feels like oddsmakers have overadjusted to the fact that Navy is a good football team and has set this year’s total at 52.5. We haven’t see a total above 50 in a service academy matchup since 2016.
Air Force won’t score enough. And there won’t be enough possessions for Navy to take it Over on their own. This is the return of the Service Academy Under.
Rocco Becht Over 1.5 TD Passes
The Iowa State Cyclones visit the Cincinnati Bearcats in a really intriguing Big 12 matchup on Saturday. The Cyclones enter this game with a perfect 5-0 record, but you can make the case that they can’t afford a slip-up against the Bearcats.
That’s because even though Iowa State’s schedule isn’t that taxing, this is the Big 12, where crazy things happen. And if the Cyclones want a trip to the College Football Playoff, they’ll likely have to enter a potential Big 12 title game with no more than one loss. So a loss to Cincy would be a big setback.
That means QB Rocco Becht is going to have to put the Cyclones on his back. Becht has had a quiet few weeks through the air, but that should change this week.
The Bearcats pass defense is bad. Like in the conversation for the worst in the country bad. They enter this game ranked 132nd in defensive success rate on dropbacks and 102nd in EPA per dropback. Basically, meaning they give up short passes, explosive passes and everything in between.
Most recently, they allowed Jalon Daniels to torch them for 445 yards with four touchdowns and no picks. Cincy has surrendered multiple touchdown passes to both Power Four opponents they’ve played this season. I expect that to continue with Becht here as he tries to power the Cyclones to another win.
The plus money here makes this a great bet for Saturday afternoon.
Vanderbilt +10.5
Put some respect on the Vanderbilt Commodores' name.
Vandy enters this week’s game against the Alabama Crimson Tide undefeated, they rank 16th in the country, and they went over their regular-season win total in just five weeks.
It is quarterback Diego Pavia who makes this Vanderbilt engine run. And this engine is no jalopy.
Pavia has thrown for 1,211 yards while completing 75% of his passes with 13 touchdowns, and adding another 294 yards and two scores on the ground. He has Vandy ranked second in offensive success rate and it’s very balanced. They rank 21st in EPA per rush and fourth in EPA per dropback.
However, the other reason why Vanderbilt will have an opportunity to do the unthinkable and beat Alabama for a second consecutive year is that this type of offence has given the Crimson Tide problems since Kalen DeBoer arrived in Tuscaloosa.
Last season it was USF, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. This year it was Florida State. This Crimson Tide defense has looked slow against teams with mobile QBs and enters this matchup ranked 49th in opponent EPA per rush. The Tide are 0-6 ATS in those games.
They looked slow against Florida State, surrendering 230 rushing yards to the Seminoles, including 78 yards and a score to QB Tommy Castellanos. That running allowed Castellanos to be efficient in the passing game, going 9-for-14 for 152 yards.
On top of it all, Vandy is confident and believes they deserve to be on the same field as Alabama. Pavia went on On3 and said, “But we just gotta play within the white lines. If we do that, if we play our game, it won’t be close.”
I don’t know if it will be a Vandy blowout, but the Commodores will have a chance to win this game. So, take the 10.5 points.
Triple Option Parlay for Week 6
Air Force-Navy Under 52.5
Rocco Becht Over 1.5 TD Passes
Vanderbilt +10.5
My weekly Triple Option column is 8-7 this season for +0.28 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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