A friend in the college football gambling world offered a wonderful piece of advice earlier this season: “You have to be really good at losing.”
This column enjoyed Week 0 and then suffered for three straight weeks. Fortunately, we are really good at losing.
After two straight winning weeks, it's now as important as ever to remember to be really good at losing. Another losing week is never far away, and this column is still in the red on the season, but three out of six weeks have been profitable, so the process can be trusted.
This week, my college football predictions focus on doubt more than faith. Doubt in one coach’s willingness to shift his offense. Doubt in another coach’s ability to shift his offense. Then, for good measure, doubt in Trent Dilfer’s defense.
These are coaches who are not really good at losing, which can be to the benefit of my college football best bets when it is recognized early enough. Let’s build on last week’s 3-2 showing for +1.15 units, bringing the season totals to 13-17 for a loss of 4.02 units.
College football predictions Week 6
Texas Tech -11.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
West Virginia team total Under u13.5 (+100 at Caesars)
Army -7 (-110 at DraftKings)
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UL-Monroe/Northwestern u40.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Western Kentucky moneyline (+125 at FanDuel)
Texas Tech -11.5
The issue is not Houston Cougars head coach Willie Fritz’s offensive designs. His approach has led to consistent winning at Central Missouri, Sam Houston State, Georgia Southern, and Tulane.
That's an impressive path to take while stockpiling 208 wins, a .642 winning percentage, and 21 winning seasons out of 27 chances. And all that doesn’t even include four years at Blinn, a junior college program in Texas where Fritz went 39-5-1 and won multiple conference titles.
The issue is that Fritz will not vary from his approach.
Flash back to 2021 for a moment, his one losing season at Tulane once Fritz had pulled it out of the doldrums. The Green Wave went 2-10, bogged down by the No. 91 rushing attack in the country in terms of expected points added (EPA) per rush attempt. Yet, Tulane ran the ball 7.1% more often than would have been expected from an average team in a given game state, per cfb-graphs.com, a rate right about the highest third of the country.
Fritz would rather run into multiple brick walls than ever consider how the crow flies. That was even more true in his first year at Houston last season, the No. 110 EPA rushing offense still running the ball at the 35th-highest rate in the country, 8.2% more often than expected. Willie, put some air in the ball.
No, he won’t do it, not even in 2025. The Houston rushing offense has improved, ranking No. 22 in EPA, but its No. 110 rank in rushing success rate should be a great worry. The Cougars are boom or very much bust, all while running the ball 7.7% more often than expected, No. 26 in the country.
Against this Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive line, this approach will fail. The Red Raiders rank No. 4 in rushing success rate against and No. 21 in rushing EPA against. They are, simply enough, too good for Fritz’s insistence, but he will insist, anyway.
West Virginia team total Under 13.5
Similarly, Rich Rodriguez does not vary his offense because his unique ground-based offense is what has helped him build his coaching career, effectively twice. However, when Rich Rod’s offense does not have specific types of players in the backfield and a cohesive offensive line, it struggles.
The West Virginia Mountaineers were always unlikely to have that offense in the first year of Rodriguez’s return, but then the loss of Jahiem White furthered the coming woes.
The advanced metrics are bad enough — No. 78 offensive EPA, No. 105 in offensive success rate, running the ball at the eighth-highest frequency in the country despite ranking just No. 76 in rushing EPA — but this can be said in simpler terms: The Mountaineers have cashed the Under on their team total in all five games this season, simply because this offense is ineffective.
Meanwhile, the BYU Cougars have held all four of their opponents Under their team totals and by an average of seven points. The Cougars thrive thanks to a run defense that cuts down on explosive rushes, which should remove the only hope West Virginia has of scoring on Friday night.
Army -7
You cannot say Trent Dilfer has let go of the rope at UAB. Sure, a player may have gone out of his way to stomp on the Tennessee kicker’s foot. And sure, the most publicized NIL deal on the UAB roster may be players selling their own versions of Viagra, but you cannot say Trent Dilfer has let go of the rope at UAB.
Because he never had the rope at UAB.
To slow down the triple-option offense, discipline and focus are paramount. Dilfer lacks both. Thus, so do the Blazers.
There's a reason Dilfer has gone just 1-4 against the spread against triple-option teams. He was never schematically-versed enough to slow them. And that one ATS win? That came a few weeks ago when Navy seemingly forgot to take the game seriously. The Midshipmen turned a 24-24 game at halftime into a 38-24 win, suffocating the game in the second half.
Dilfer has not finished within a touchdown of a service academy in his 2+ years at UAB, and there's no reason to expect this roster to show the discipline necessary to do so now.
UL-Monroe/Northwestern Under 40.5
It is somewhat of a laugh, pointing out every week that now seven out of eight games played at Northwestern’s temporary field along the shores of Lake Michigan have cashed their Unders in regulation. It is also clearly profitable.
All three Wildcats’ home games this year have gone Under their totals, despite a blowout of FCS-level Western Illinois, despite garbage-time touchdowns against Oregon, and despite UCLA’s defensive woes.
If that is all somewhat a laugh, the real comedy is how much better UL-Monroe is than UCLA. UL-Monroe is one of the most underfunded programs in the country, and one could pretty easily argue the Warhawks would be favored against the Bruins on a neutral field these days. Alas, UCLA will not be bowl-eligible, so we will not get to prove that.
Oh no absolutely cackling at the @statsowar comparison. (Make a matchup, put it on a neutral field, get weird.)
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 1, 2025
UL-Monroe over UCLA largely because the Bruins' defense might improve if I was on the defensive line? https://t.co/6g1CzCNDuG pic.twitter.com/oFTRKyzYSR
More earnestly, what does Northwestern do well offensively? For these purposes, “Nothing” is not an acceptable answer, no matter how accurate it is. The Wildcats run better than they throw, and they run often, No. 24 in the country in rush rate over expected. When it comes to a total, though, two problems present themselves.
First of all, Northwestern runs consistently but not explosively. The Wildcats string together adequate run after adequate run after adequate run.
Secondly, UL-Monroe is better at defending the run than the pass, noticeably so.
So the thought of removing the Wildcats’ one offensive asset should assure this game falls Under its total. It may as well be your nominal “No touchdowns scored” prop bet of the week (+5500 at DraftKings as of Wednesday’s earliest hours), a regular stick in the eye of the fools who insist Unders are boring bets.
Western Kentucky moneyline
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are 4-1 against the spread this year, though anyone who watched the Hilltoppers cover the spread against Nevada two weeks ago is well aware of the comedies that can cash bets in our gloriously messy sport.
Western Kentucky succeeds by throwing the ball often and hoping good things eventually come out of it. Essentially, if the Hilltoppers do not run the ball, good things eventually come for their offense.
That is a risky approach to bet on, particularly on the road, but Delaware’s defense gives up passing success too often, ranking No. 102 in the country in dropback success rate. Those repeated adequate successes should eventually lead to chunk gains for Western Kentucky. This is simply not an offense that you can let have multiple bites at the proverbial apple.
My weekly CFB best bets column is 13-17 this season for -4.02 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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