The Duke Blue Devils make the cross-country trip to Berkeley to face the California Golden Bears in ACC play for Week 6.
With a total of 55.5, this game is expected to have some late-night fireworks.
See what that means for Cal wide receiver Jacob De Jesus with my Duke vs. California predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Duke vs California prediction
Duke vs California best bet: Jacob De Jesus Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Duke Blue Devils can be classified as a “shootout” team. That’s obvious on the surface, where they average 34.8 ppg offensively and 26.4 ppg defensively, and is backed up by the advanced metrics (21st in EPA per play on offense, 102nd on defense).
They also play at a furious pace offensively, ranking 24th in snaps per minute, which helps create a fast and points-filled atmosphere.
Let’s talk more about that defense. The secondary has been leaky, ranking 112th in EPA per pass while allowing 254.2 passing yards per game. Removing the games against FCS schools and backup quarterbacks, the average rises to 310 yards per game.
True freshman star quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been quite the revelation this season, throwing for 248.4 yards per game. The California Golden Bears tend to rely on his arm, ranking 24th in pass rate, and that should continue in a favorable matchup for the aerial assault.
Slot receiver Jacob De Jesus has been his go-to option, leading the team in targets (44) and receptions (28). Duke has been vulnerable against slot receivers at times this season, and De Jesus is poised to capitalize as Cal’s most dangerous offensive playmaker.
Duke vs California same-game parlay
The most bankable part of this handicap is that Duke’s offense has been legit this season.
The portal’s “most expensive” quarterback, Darian Mensah, leads a unit that has averaged at least 6.0 yards per play in every game this season. The Blue Devils should find success for a sixth consecutive week against a Cal defense with good metrics put up against poor competition, and slot receiver Que’Sean Brown should be a factor as he averages 59.2 receiving yards per game.
Duke vs California SGP
- Jacob De Jesus Over 51.5 Receiving Yards
- Que’Sean Brown Over 48.5 Receiving Yards
- Duke Team Total Over 28.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Slot Receiver Heaven!
I’ll give Cal its flowers for a surprising 4-1 start to the year, but Duke’s offense is the most reliable unit on the field Saturday night.
Duke vs California SGP
- Jacob De Jesus Over 51.5 Receiving Yards
- Jacob De Jesus Anytime Touchdown
- Que’Sean Brown Over 48.5 Receiving Yards
- Duke Team Total Over 28.5
- Duke -2.5
Duke vs California odds
- Spread: Duke -2.5 (-110) | California +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Duke -145 | California +120
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 (-110) | Under 56.5 (-110)
Duke vs California trend to know
Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against ACC opponents. Find more college football betting trends for Duke vs California.
How to watch Duke vs California
| Location | California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Duke vs California latest injuries
Duke vs California weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
