Baylor vs Texas Tech Odds, Picks and Predictions: Red Raiders Win a Shootout

With a pair of top-flight offenses squaring up against mediocre-at-best defenses, there will be plenty of scoring on Saturday at Lubbock. Our betting picks also expect Texas Tech to emerge victorious over Baylor in the Big 12 clash.

John Reger - Contributor at
John Reger • Contributor
Oct 27, 2022 • 15:13 ET • 4 min read

Texas Tech hosts Baylor on Saturday as first-year Red Raiders head coach Joey McGuire sees his former employer for the first time. 

The Bears won last year's meeting and lead the all-time series 40-39-1. Texas Tech, however, has a high-powered offense and will be looking to avenge last year’s defeat. College football odds have Texas Tech favored by 2.5 points at most sportsbooks. 

Can the Red Raiders win their second consecutive game and improve their standing in the Big 12 or will Baylor win its fifth of the season? Continue reading for free college football picks for Baylor vs. Texas Tech on October 29.

Baylor vs Texas Tech best odds

Baylor vs Texas Tech picks and predictions

This game should be a shootout from the very beginning. The Red Raiders are ranked ninth in the country in total offense, averaging 499.9 yards per game, and 26th in points scored at 36.3 per game. 

Meanwhile, the Bears are 28th in total offense (458.3 yards per game) and 18th in points (37.4). 

What is going to be hard for Baylor is it's going to have to prepare for three possible quarterbacks. Senior Tyler Slough, who started in Week 1 but left with a shoulder injury, has been cleared to play. Sophomore Donovan Smith has started in four times and played in all seven of the team’s games, throwing for 1,505 yards, 12 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. 

Freshman Behren Morton has started the last two games and passed for 886 yards, five TDs, and three interceptions. 

It doesn’t seem to matter who is under center as the passing game is the strongest part of the Red Raiders offense. They are third in the country in passing, averaging 363.6 yards, trailing only Washington and Tennessee. 

Baylor’s pass defense hasn't been able to stop opposing attacks, allowing 233 yards per game (80th in the country). 

Texas Tech isn't much better, allowing an average of 218.9 per game. 

The biggest variable Baylor will have to get past is the hostile atmosphere that awaits in Lubbock. Jones AT&T Stadium is one of the harder environments to play in and 60,454 fans are going to make sure the Bears are uncomfortable. One of the crowd’s weapons is throwing tortillas on the field during the game. 

This is going to be a tight game but I believe Texas Tech squeaks out a win and scores plenty in the process. Baylor should stay with them for most of the game but fall at the end in a contest that is going to see a lot of touchdowns.

My best bet: Texas Tech moneyline and Over 63.5 points (+250 at FanDuel)

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Baylor vs Texas Tech spread analysis

Texas Tech is favored by 2.5 at most sportsbooks and the line hasn’t budged since it opened. 

Both teams sport identical 4-3 records (2-2 in the Big 12) on the season. Both Baylor and Texas Tech have played identical opponents this year. Baylor lost to Oklahoma State 36-24 and Texas Tech lost to OSU 41-31. Baylor lost to West Virginia 43-40, while Texas Tech beat WVU 48-10.

That's one reason I am giving away the 2.5 points and backing the Red Raiders. Another reason is the home-field advantage. It’s a hard place to play and Texas Tech’s record this year is 4-0 at Jones AT&T Stadium.

Baylor’s defense is statistically better than Texas Tech’s. The Bears are 33rd in yards allowed, averaging 341.1, while the Red Raiders are 46th at 354.7. They are 53rd in points allowed, averaging 24.1 while Texas Tech is 72nd in that category, allowing an average of 27 points. 

However, the Red Raiders offense will overcome its defensive shortcomings. The passing attack is deadly and Baylor won't have an answer for it.

Baylor vs Texas Tech Over/Under analysis

If you like scoring, you are going to love this game. Both teams should find the end zone repeatedly. 

The line opened at 61.5 but went up a point by midweek. Texas Tech is 26th in scoring and Baylor is 20th. 

Both squads have eclipsed 30+ points in five of their seven games. With average defenses taking the field, I expect both teams to get over the 30-point mark on Saturday. 

The trends support the game going Over as well. Texas Tech is 4-1 on the Over in its last five games against a team with a winning record and also 4-1 in its last five games following a win of more than 20 points. 

Baylor is 4-0 to the Over in its last four games as well as 4-0 in its last four conference games. 

Another encouraging sign is the Over is 5-2 in the last seven games between the two at Lubbock.

Baylor vs Texas Tech betting trend to know

The Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings at Texas Tech between the two teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for Baylor vs. Texas Tech.

Baylor vs Texas Tech game info

Location: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
Date: Saturday, October 29, 2022
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET

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