Alabama vs Mississippi Odds, Picks and Predictions: Fade Saban and Co. as Double-Digit Road Chalk

It’s a little hard to comprehend the fact that Alabama has lost twice of its last three games and is essentially eliminated from the College Football Playoff this early in the season. But here we are.

So, the question is, how motivated will the Crimson Tide be heading into this weekend’s matchup at Mississippi? Motivated enough to cover a double-digit spread on the road against an 8-1 Rebels team that still has a shot at the SEC West title?

I break it all down and bring you my best bet in our college football picks and predictions Alabama vs. Mississippi.

Alabama vs Mississippi best odds

Alabama vs Mississippi picks and predictions

The same old problems plagued Alabama in its 32-31 loss to LSU last week. The wide receiver group keeps dropping too many passes in key situations, to the point where Bryce Young completed less than 50 % of his attempts. Another strong-armed dual-threat quarterback gave the Bama defense problems all night, and one of the most penalized teams in the country committed another nine infractions. 

The result was the Crimson Tide’s second loss in three games and basically all but being eliminated from the College Football Playoff. So, how motivated will Nick Saban’s squad be heading into this matchup against Mississippi?

Saban would likely love to eliminate Lane Kiffin from conference title contention, but it’s hard to see this version of Bama flip a switch and suddenly put on a dominant performance on the road. 

The Tide are now 2-6 against the spread in their last six true road games dating back to last season. They have lost three of those games outright, and the margin of victory in three of the five wins has been two points or fewer. 

And now Kiffin is probably licking his chops after seeing Tennessee and LSU combine for 371 yards rushing on 5.1 yards per carry in those last two losses.

That means we should see a healthy dose of the Rebels’ running back dynamic duo of Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans. Meanwhile, quarterback Jaxson Dart should be able to keep the Crimson Tide defense honest with rollouts and moving the pocket, giving him a chance to attack a Bama secondary that has been vulnerable to the deep ball.

We’ve been waiting for Alabama to flip the switch and be that dominating team we were expecting all season. It just hasn’t happened, and I’m not convinced this will be the week when Saban rights the ship. This deflated spot has me taking the points with the Rebels at home.

My best bet: Mississippi +12 (-110 at bet365)

Alabama vs Mississippi spread analysis

This SEC showdown opened with Alabama as an 11-point road favorite and despite the Crimson Tide’s struggles on the road, that hasn’t stopped them from seeing the early action in this one. Bama was bumped up to 11.5, then 12, and now 12.5 is even starting to pop up. 

I’d expect the money to keep coming in on Alabama as kickoff approaches on Saturday, with most people expecting a bounce-back for the Tide. While I’m locked in at Mississippi +12, if you like the Rebels, there’s a good chance you can get an even better number. 

I think this game should be lined in the 7.5-to-9.5 range. Sure, Alabama’s two losses are close. But the Tide could have also lost to Texas and Texas A&M.

If Mississippi is able to rush the ball effectively and take care of the ball like the teams in those other close games, there’s no reason why the Rebels can’t do the same.

Alabama vs Mississippi Over/Under analysis

The total for this SEC showdown hit the board at 63.5 and has already been bet up to 64.5, and now that number is juiced to the Over as of Thursday afternoon. That said, I would consider leaning the other way in this one.

I strongly believe that Saban will say enough is enough in this one and run the hell out of the ball in this game. Bama and Bryce Young, in particular, just can’t rely on the guys on the outside. So, expect Saban to lean on Jahmyr Gibbs in the running game. 

And why not? The transfer from Georgia Tech has racked up 771 yards and six scores on the ground at a clip of nearly seven yards per carry going against a Mississippi defense that is struggling a bit and ranks 83rd in rushing yards allowed per contest. 

On the other side, Kiffin and the Rebels are going to do their best to establish the run in this one. No Power Five team runs a higher percentage of run plays than Mississippi. 

With both teams looking to run the ball, drives should be extended and the clock will keep running. I would lean Under this relatively high number. 

Alabama vs Mississippi betting trend to know

Alabama is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Alabama vs. Mississippi.

Alabama vs Mississippi game info

Alabama vs Mississippi latest injuries

Alabama vs Mississippi weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic