What should we take from the Oklahoma Sooners having no trouble with the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday night?
If you remove Michigan’s 75-yard touchdown run early in the second half, the 24-13 win takes on a whole new pain, as the Wolverines otherwise managed just 213 total yards and 3.87 yards per play.
That may be what we should take away from the pseudo-blowout. While Sooners quarterback John Mateer is unquestionably entertaining, Michigan’s problems made the primetime affair a one-sided debacle more than anything else.
College football Week 2 things you shouldn't overreact to
Do not overreact to Oklahoma’s relative offensive explosion or Mateer’s three total touchdowns. Michigan’s defense might be bad this season...
The argument all week behind betting the Sooners to cover the spread even when it rose to -5.5 was that New Mexico had relative success passing the ball against Michigan in Week 1. The Lobos should never have been operating at a 43% success rate through the air against the Wolverines.
New Mexico found success on just 30% of its designed pass plays today against FCS-level Idaho State. In both games, the Lobos leaned on the pass more than the rush, and they were notably more successful with it against Michigan.
So Mateer finding success on 42% of his passing plays is simply another data point that the Wolverines have notable defensive issues. His 21-of-34 for 270 yards and a touchdown with another 78 rushing yards and two scores on 17 carries (sacks adjusted) will garner attention this week. They have already lowered his Heisman odds and made bettors plenty of money.
One more John Mateer touchdown tonight and @Covers_Caley will be independently wealthy. https://t.co/g9h54YpeBo pic.twitter.com/O8gXjZgUFB
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 7, 2025
But do not put too much faith in Oklahoma against defenses better at defending the pass than Michigan. Again, New Mexico had more success through the air against Michigan than it did against Idaho State.
Douglas’ advice: Sure, trust Oklahoma to wallop Temple next week. Any spread within 35 points feels safe, but ease up on any Mateer rushing stats. This is a week when the Sooners coaches will emphasize taking fewer hits. They hope to play 14 or 15 games this season.
Do not overreact to Duke’s 45-19 loss at home to Illinois. For most of the game, the Blue Devils outplayed the Illini. They just kept making the dumbest mistakes...
Duke outgained Illinois by 19 yards. The Blue Devils fared better on late downs. They averaged 1.21 more yards per play.
And Duke turned over the ball five times. Two Illinois touchdowns came off short fields, not that a 31-19 loss would have been all that much more palatable. Then again, two more Blue Devils’ turnovers came within scoring range, one likely setting up a field goal but the other drive still had touchdown hopes when Darian Mensah threw an interception. Now this game could have been within two points, within the spread.
To describe all that in a quicker, more analytical way: Duke had a 49% success rate on Saturday, while Illinois had a 47% success rate.
Duke should have had chances to win this underrated matchup. And anyone downgrading the Blue Devils as a result of that blowout loss is making a forward-looking mistake.
Mistakes killing the Blue Devils...
— Andrew Caley (@Covers_Caley) September 6, 2025
Douglas' advice: Duke has already opened as a short underdog at Tulane, +2.5 at FanDuel, +105 on the moneyline. That is the appropriate line, about what it would have been if neither had played this past weekend. Factoring in the focus Duke will undoubtedly have this week and the added motivation for Darian Mensah returning to his previous school, there is a bounty of reason to take the Blue Devils on the moneyline in this spot.
College football Week 2 things you definitely should react to
Do overreact to Michigan’s offensive troubles. The Wolverines managed just three explosive plays on 56 snaps. That alone is a massive problem...
Michigan might be… bad. Obviously, that is relatively speaking. But really, Michigan might be relatively bad.
The inability to create any chunk plays makes ruthless efficiency a necessity, and the Wolverines offense lacks that, too.
Michigan found success on just 16 of those 56 snaps, 29%. In this instance, “success” means adding expected points, or improving a drive’s status. A first down turning into 2nd-and-8 is unsuccessful, but getting to 2nd-and-5 would be a success.
The crisis for the Wolverines is not that they were unsuccessful so often. It is that they were unsuccessful so often as well as unable to create explosive plays. With neither proverbial arrow in their quiver, the Wolverines will not be able to keep up with even adequate offenses this season.
Douglas' advice: Wait a week. Hope Michigan looks great against Central Michigan next week. Let the world see a better product. And then bet Nebraska as a 6-point home underdog on Sept. 20 against Michigan.
Do overreact to Syracuse needing overtime to beat UConn, most notably scoring only 20 points in regulation and 12 points in the game’s first 59 minutes...
A week ago, the Orange had 26 points with nearly 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter, getting within two possessions of Tennessee. That was still a genuine ballgame; do not chalk up Syracuse’s scoring to any Volunteers’ malaise.
No, that just may be a bad Tennessee defense, supposedly the better unit under Josh Heupel these days.
All of Syracuse’s scoring a week ago came on sustained drives, unlike a field goal off a short field and an explosive touchdown against UConn. The success a week ago was sustainable. Rather, Tennessee’s failing defense was failing in a repeatable manner.
The Orange were better on late downs against the Volunteers than they were against the Huskies. They also ran the ball better.
There is reason to doubt Tennessee’s defense, plenty of reason.
Gunner Stockton may not have yet impressed as Georgia’s quarterback, but it seems the Volunteers’ defense will give him that chance.
Douglas' advice: Georgia has already opened as a 7.5-point favorite at Tennessee next Saturday afternoon. Catching that even touchdown would have been ideal. Keep an eye out for that movement. The juice in the middle of the night suggests -7 may exist for some of Sunday morning.
Rapid fire, others bets to target in Week 3
- Fade Stanford all season. Stop thinking about it. Anyone who watched the loss to BYU late on Saturday night saw some of the most discouraging offensive sequences in recent memory. The spread should open with Boston College favored by two touchdowns this week, but it may climb higher. Do not go north of -16.5 with the Eagles, but let’s hope for a -13.5.
- Bowling Green and Kent State both covered massive spreads this weekend, lessening the trend of schools with late coaching changes now going 26-44-1 against the spread in the first two months of the last two seasons. But with tighter spreads coming this week, trust that trend. Take Liberty up to -9.5 against Bowling Green and take Buffalo up to -23.5 against Kent State.
How bad is Kent State? Well... pic.twitter.com/WUGHLvrKJv
— Bryan Fischer (@BryanDFischer) September 6, 2025
- Oregon has opened as only a 28.5-point favorite at Northwestern. The Ducks ran up the score on Oklahoma State partly because Dan Lanning was ticked off with Mike Gundy, but that 69-3 rout was mostly a result of Oregon’s talent and speed. Those should show again against the overmatched Wildcats, even if on the shores of Lake Michigan in the best Under stadium in the country. Take Oregon up to -33.5.
- If Clemson’s offensive and defensive lines could not set the tone against Troy, lost in its own scuffles in the second year of the Gerad Parker Era, then the Tigers have no hope of setting the tone against Georgia Tech. If you see a Georgia Tech +7, snag it. FanDuel currently has it posted at +6.5 at even money, suggesting a +7 should arrive at some point.
- South Florida opened as a 16.5-point underdog at Miami. Wait for a +17.5, and then grab it. The Bulls should try to shorten this game, and if not, their offense is designed for a backdoor cover.
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