There's a logjam in the Big 12 Conference standings, with West Virginia and Texas right in the thick of it as they square off Saturday afternoon in a marquee college basketball betting matchup at Frank Erwin Special Events Center.
The Mountaineers came up just short the last time these teams met, dropping a 72-70 decision to the then-No. 4 Longhorns after Andrew Jones hit the go-ahead 3-pointer with just 1.8 seconds remaining. But West Virginia (14-6 SU, 10-10 ATS, 14-6 O/U) has rebounded nicely with wins in five of their last seven games, while Texas (13-5 SU, 7-11 ATS, 11-7 O/U) had stumbled to losses in four in five games before bouncing back with wins over Kansas State and TCU.
These are our favorite NCAA free picks and predictions for West Virginia vs. Texas on February 20, with tip-off set for 3:00 p.m. ET.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Longhorns betting preview
Injuries
West Virginia: Isaiah Cottrell F (Out).
Texas: None to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Texas is 13-4-1 ATS in the last 18 head-to-head meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for West Virginia vs. Texas.
NCAAB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTexas hit the FanDuel odds board Friday afternoon as a 4-point favorite, dipped to -3.5 Friday night and fell another point today to -2.5, where the line sits as of 12:30 p.m. ET. The betting splits bear out that line drop, with West Virginia attracting 63 percent of bets and 72 percent of money on the spread. The total initially inched up from 146.5 to 147, then went to 146, with 76 percent of bets on the Over, but 68 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Recent form matters a lot at this point in the season and if we subscribe to that theory, then the Mountaineers have an edge. They're getting 3.5 points in this key road meeting, despite having gone 5-3 ATS in their last eight games. But head-to-head history is also relevant—and the Mountaineers struggle there, having covered just once in their past seven visits to Austin.
Texas has dominated ATS in the series, but the Longhorns have been dreadful overall with just one cover in their previous seven games. And aside from their last game – a 15-point win over the Horned Frogs – they haven't looked good at all, losing three games outright as a favorite while squeaking out a three-point victory over the Wildcats, despite going in as an 11.5-point favorite.
West Virginia has been the better team of late, and that's enough for us to move the needle in their direction.
PREDICTION: West Virginia +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The public is hammering the Over in this Saturday afternoon matchup, with an overwhelming majority of bettors taking the O147. These teams converted the O140 but came up shy of Saturday's number last time out, but that had plenty to do with the Mountaineers shooting just 38.7 percent from the floor—and both teams combining to shoot just 29.5 percent from 3-point range.
The Mountaineers are by no means an offensive juggernaut, but they're still much better than they showed against Texas last time out. And both teams are riding strong Over trends, with West Virginia converting the Over in six consecutive games (to improve to 14-6 O/U for the season) and the Longhorns having surpassed the total in nine of their last 11 overall.
There's no need to go against the grain here, with both teams desperately needing the W and expected to fare better offensively than they did in their last meeting.
PREDICTION: Over 147 (-110)
West Virginia vs Texas betting card
- West Virginia +3.5 (-110)
- Over 147 (-110)
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