Duke looks to pick up a season-changing win over No. 8 Virginia at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina in a Saturday primetime matchup. The game tips at 8:00 p.m. ET and it should be one of the more enticing matchups in today’s college basketball betting slate.
Will the Blue Devils, which NCAA odds have as a slight home dog, find a way to win this one? Keep reading our Virginia vs. Duke picks and predictions to see who we think will come out on top.
Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils betting preview
Injuries
Virginia: None to report.
Duke: Jalen Johnson F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Virginia is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Virginia vs. Duke.
NCAAB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonVirginia opened a 1.5-point favorite at PointsBet USA on Friday night, moved to -2 overnight and this afternoon on to -2.5, where the line sits as of 5 p.m. ET. "Very lopsided action on the spread, with Virginia taking 95 percent of bets and 96 percent of money wagered," PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said. The total is down two points to 130, although the Over is getting 66 percent of bets and 61 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Duke was dealt a difficult blow with star freshman Jalen Johnson stepping away from the program, but the Blue Devils have no choice but to focus on the task at hand. They won their first game without Johnson on Wednesday and have a chance to win their third game in a row overall tonight, which would improve Duke to 10-8 on the season.
Also, a win over a team of Virginia’s caliber could propel Duke into a late push for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Crazier things have happened.
The problem for the Blue Devils is that their defense has been miserable all year. Duke is 84th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (all efficiency stats according to KenPom.com) and the team now faces a Virginia group that is 13th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Cavaliers have a number of players that are capable of lighting up this Blue Devils team, but Sam Hauser and Trey Murphy III stand out the most. Hauser is one of the best shooters in college basketball and he will make Duke pay for any mistakes that end with him taking a clean look at the basket. Meanwhile, Murphy also shoots it well from deep and can also exploit defenses at the rim.
And if that’s not enough, point guard Kihei Clark is one of the best decision-makers in the college game, so he’ll be able to break his man down off the dribble and then find those sharpshooters—or just finish at the basket himself.
Defensively, Jay Huff could cause a lot of problems for Duke. He’s an elite shot-blocker for Tony Bennett’s team, so he might be able to make life difficult on Duke leading scorer Matthew Hurt. And with Johnson out, the Blue Devils are going to rely on Hurt now more than ever.
PREDICTION: Virginia -2 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Under has hit in each of Virginia’s last four games when coming off a SU loss. The Cavaliers allowed 81 points in a 21-point loss against the Seminoles on Monday, as they were not able to prevent Florida State from knocking down triples in that one.
Now, look for Bennett’s team to really look to get back to what it does best against Duke—defense. That means that Virginia will lock in defensively and take its time on the other end of the floor. The Cavaliers will eat into the shot clock and hunt for mismatches, and that should mean that this game will be relatively low scoring.
When these teams met last season, they combined to score just 102 points. We're backing the Under again tonight.
PREDICTION: Under 130 (-110)
Virginia vs Duke betting card
- Virginia -2 (-110)
- Under 130 (-110)
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