Two of college basketball’s blue-blood programs lock horns in the Bahamas, as the Villanova Wildcats take on the 14th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels.
UNC is a 1.5-point betting favorite in the college basketball odds, with a berth to finals in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament on the line.
It’s the Big East against the ACC and a rematch of the 2016 national title game won by the Wildcats. Which power conference emerges victorious today?
Check below for my free college basketball picks and best bet for Villanova vs, UNC on Thursday, November 23.
Villanova vs North Carolina best odds
Villanova vs North Carolina picks and predictions
These are two very good teams squaring off in Nassau.
The Villanova Wildcats might be outside the AP Top 25, but they’re a Top-20 ranked squad in KenPom’s rating metric and just shredded the undefeated Texas Tech Red Raiders 85-69 to open the Battle 4 Atlantis.
Forward Eric Dixon led the way with 18 points and six rebounds, while guard Justin Moore filled the stat sheet with 18 points, six boards, five dimes, and two steals, helping ‘Nova improve to 4-1 on the year. The Wildcats are putting up 77.4 points per game, and rank 14th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric.
They have been beasts defensively as well, holding the opposition to just 59 points a game, a scoring defense inside the Top 20 in the nation. Part of their success Wednesday came by forcing 15 turnovers and converting those to 15 points.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are coming off a 91-69 thrashing of the Northern Iowa Panthers, improving to 4-0. It wasn’t all pretty though, as the Tar Heels actually trailed by six at halftime before a second-half rampage that had them tally 34 of the first 40 points to put the game on ice.
Harrison Ingram led the ‘Heels in scoring, finishing with 16 points, 10 rebounds, and three assists. Meanwhile, Armando Bacot had 10 points, eight boards, and three blocks.
North Carolina is on the first page of the NCAA scoring page, pumping in 84.3 points per game, which ranks 47th in the NCAA. It hasn't had one close contest yet, winning by at least 16 points in every game, and the last three by at least 22 points.
The Tar Heels are right with the Wildcats in offensive efficiency, ranking 16th on KenPom, and inside the Top 25 in defensive efficiency, allowing 64.8 points per game.
Tempo is the key of the day. Villanova plays at among the slowest paces in the nation, ranking 313th on KenPom, while UNC checks in at a breakneck 48th.
I think ‘Nova can bring this down to a Big East pace, but I don’t know if its guard-heavy lineups — a reason they hoist over half their attempts from downtown — can contend with the size and power of the Tar Heels’ frontcourt.
Led by Harrison and Bacot, UNC shoots 48% from the field and averages 12.3 offensive rebounds per game.
This one could come down to the wire, but solid defense should keep this Under the total.
My best bet: Under 146.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Villanova vs North Carolina same-game parlay
Under 146.5
North Carolina moneyline
Armando Bacot Over 15.5 points
Let’s add another wrinkle to this Battle 4 Atlantis semi with a three-leg SGP.
We’re going with Bacot, the 6-foot-11 senior big who is averaging a double-double on the season, putting up 19.5 points and 12 rebounds per game.
His inside presence was felt more on the defensive side against Northern Iowa, as he played through foul trouble and finished with just eight shot attempts in 22 minutes.
Prior to the Bahamas opener, Bacot had scored at least 20 points in the three prior contests, including a monster 22-point, 20-rebound night against Lehigh.
Dixon is the lone ‘big’ in the ‘Nova starting lineup, and at 6-foot-8 will be undersized, while Tyler Burton checks in at the other forward spot at 6-foot-7.
The only other reserve forward who saw playing time last game was Lance Ware, but they may also throw in Nnanna Njoku — both players measure out at 6-foot-9.
I think Bacot bounces back in a big way and should propel North Carolina to the win to remain perfect on the season.
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Villanova vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis
The 1.5-point line is the lowest spread either team has faced this season.
North Carolina has been a favorite in each of their first four games, with a line favoring them by at least 11.5 points. They are 2-2-0 against the spread this year.
Villanova’s shortest line this year was as a 3.5-point favorite over Texas Tech. They are also 2-2-0 ATS on the season.
As for the total, three of ‘Nova’s five games have finished Over the total, while the ‘Heels have crossed the scoring total in two of four contests. This is the lowest scoring total UNC has had this year, by 6.5 points.
Villanova vs North Carolina betting trend to know
North Carolina was just 2-4-1 ATS at neutral site games a season ago, while Villanova was 2-5-0 ATS. Find more college basketball betting trends for Villanova vs. North Carolina.
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Villanova vs North Carolina game info
| Location: | Imperial Arena, Nassau, Bahamas |
| Date: | Thursday, November 23, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Villanova vs North Carolina key injuries
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