The second round of the Pac-12 Tournament marches on when the No. 4 UCLA Bruins face the No. 5 Oregon State Beavers at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Thursday afternoon.
The Beavers get an automatic bump to the second round of the tournament due to Arizona’s postseason ban. Oregon State had a three-game tear stunted in a 13-point home loss to rival Oregon in the season finale. UCLA enters the postseason on a three-game skid (1-2 ATS), most recently a gutting last-second loss to USC last Saturday.
Enjoy our college basketball betting free picks and predictions for Oregon State vs. UCLA on March 11.
Oregon State vs UCLA odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonUCLA opened as 5-point chalk at TwinSpires and is up to -5.5 as of 2:30 p.m. ET, with 60 percent of bets and 75 percent of money on the Bruins. The total is down to 132 from a 133.5 opener, with the Under taking 57 percent of bets/68 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameOregon State Beavers vs UCLA Bruins betting preview
Injuries
Oregon State: None.
UCLA: Jalen Hill F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
UCLA is 10-4-1 against the spread in its last 15 games following an ATS win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon State vs. UCLA.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Beavers had better get their heels above the 3-point line if they want to avoid a quick exit from the Pac-12 postseason.
Oregon State, which has done well to defend from distance this season (54th in the country at 31.2 percent defense from 3-point range), has allowed its last three foes to hit at over 59 percent from outside, including a 15-for-23 shelling from 3-point range in the loss to the Ducks.
The Beavers’ towering roster, which relies on getting to the basket and putting up points in the paint, doesn’t have the best touch from the perimeter, shooting just 34.2 percent from deep. That weakness was glaring when OSU went down early to Oregon on the weekend and couldn’t battle back.
The Bruins aren’t piling on the points from distance – making an average of 6.7 3-pointers per game – but cash in those long-range looks when attempted, hitting better than 37 percent from the perimeter on the season (34th). A few early long-range makes from UCLA will stretch Oregon State’s defenders away from the basket and open up the middle of the floor.
UCLA also does a good job cleaning the glass, allowing opponents an offensive rebound rate of 21.5 percent. The Bruins won the rebound war with the Beavers during their 57-52 home win over Oregon State back on January 30, giving up only five offensive boards while pulling down 10 of those offensive rebounds for themselves.
PREDICTION: UCLA -5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
UCLA isn’t going to hit 15 triples like the Ducks did against the Beavers this past weekend nor does it have the firepower of Oregon. Instead, the Bruins are going to stretch possessions with an average offensive clock of 18.6 seconds (307th) and be very mindful of what happened on defense the past three games.
The Bruins’ three-game slide featured three blown leads, with UCLA owning the advantage at the halftime break in each of those contests. Head coach Mick Cronin preached finishing the fight after his team buckled in the final 20 minutes versus Southern Cal, burning a 36-25 advantage and watching the Trojans win the game on a last-second triple (which followed a missed free throw from Jules Bernard with 11 seconds left).
For the year, UCLA is one of the better second-half defenses in the country, holding opponents to an average of 33.6 points in the final 20 minutes. It checked Oregon State to just 27 points in the second half of its January win over the Beavers and that final score fell well below the closing total of 134.5 points, with 23.5 points of head room for Under bettors.
PREDICTION: Under 134 (-110)
Oregon State vs UCLA betting card
- UCLA -5 (-110)
- Under 134 (-110)
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