The No. 11 California Golden Bears stunned their way into the Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinals, where the No. 3 Colorado Buffaloes await at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Thursday.
Cal shocked No. 6 Stanford with a 76-58 win as an 8.5-point college basketball betting underdog Wednesday night, marking the first time in five games the Golden Bears covered the spread. Colorado enters the postseason on a four-game winning run and split both matchups with Cal this season, most recently losing 71-62 as a 9-point road underdog on February 13.
Get our best free Cal vs. Colorado picks and predictions for March 11, with tip-off at 11:30 p.m. ET.
California vs Colorado odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonColorado remains -14 at BetMGM Nevada shortly before tipoff in this Pac-12 quarterfinal, down from the opener of -15. "Ticket count is still really close, within two tickets, but money is now closer to 3/1 on Colorado," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said. That's up from a couple of hours ago, when money was roughly 2/1 on Colorado. The total never moved off 133.5, with ticket count remaining relatively close, while money continues to heavily favor the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameCalifornia Golden Bears vs Colorado Buffaloes betting preview
Injuries
California: None.
Colorado: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in Buffaloes’ last eight games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for California vs. Colorado.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
California’s first-round upset was pretty much in motion from the opening minutes, when it was obvious Stanford couldn’t hit the ocean if it fell out of a boat.
The Cardinal made less than 38 percent of their shots in the loss while the Golden Bears showed up on offense for the first time in almost a month, hitting nearly 54 percent of their looks for 78 points—the most Cal has scored versus a Pac-12 opponent since an 84-78 home win over Washington on January 9.
The Buffaloes are a much tougher test on defense but have had trouble replicating home results (9-3 ATS) when they venture outside of Boulder (8-8 ATS road/neutral court). Colorado beat Cal handily at home back in January, but the Golden Bears were without top talent Matt Bradley for that game.
When the series swung to Berkeley in February, Bradley hung 29 points on Colorado’s defense. The 6-foot-4 junior guard finished 7 for 11 from the floor (3 for 4 from 3-point range) with 19 points, six rebounds and six assists in the win over Stanford on Wednesday. He’s had the hot hand, pouring in 20 or more points in six of his last 11 games.
There’s no doubt Colorado is the better side, but this lofty spread is a lot to manage considering the Buffaloes’ production dips from 78.9 points per home game in the thin air of Boulder to just 69.6 points per game away from Colorado.
PREDICTION: Cal +16 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Golden Bears’ offensive outpouring is tough to buy into, considering Cal averaged only 55.5 points during its season-ending four-game losing skid. It’s even more unlikely to repeat itself against the Buffaloes, who enter the tournament ranked 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and allowed an average of 60.5 points per game during its four-game winning run to close out Pac-12 play.
The 134-point number set for Thursday is the same total these programs faced in Cal back in February, with the final score just sneaking below the total. Colorado doesn’t produce the same numbers away from home and will play its plodding pace on offense, trying to wear the Golden Bears down in their second straight outing.
The Buffs force foes to use up an average of 18.5 seconds per offensive possession – eighth highest in the country – and have leaned on that drum-tight defense to produce Unders in seven of its last eight games heading into the Pac-12 postseason.
PREDICTION: Under 134 (-110)
California vs Colorado betting card
- Cal +16 (-110)
- Under 134 (-110)
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