The No. 1 Oregon Ducks showdown with the No. 8 Arizona State Sun Devils in Round 2 of the Pac-12 Tournament at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Thursday.
Arizona State survived a back-and-forth battle with Washington State in the opening round but now runs into an Oregon squad that finished the regular season on a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS), in which it boasted an average margin of victory of more than nine points per contest.
Dive into our college basketball betting free picks and predictions for Arizona State vs. Oregon on March 11.
Arizona State vs Oregon odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick Everson
Oregon hit FanDuel’s odds board at -8.5 Thursday night and is up a tick to -9 today. As of noon ET, the Ducks are attracting 80 percent of bets and 84 percent of money on the spread. The total is pinned to 147.5, with ticket count and money just shy of 2/1 on the Over.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Oregon Ducks betting preview
Injuries
Arizona State: Marcus Bagley F (Questionable), Josh Christopher G (Questionable).
Oregon: Text.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Oregon has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arizona State vs. Oregon.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Oregon enters the postseason having tasted defeat only once in its last 11 games, posting a 7-4 ATS mark during that stretch. That run includes a 75-64 victory at Arizona State as a 2-point favorite on February 11, in which the Ducks limited the Sun Devils to 33 percent shooting from the field.
Arizona State wasn’t fantastic versus Washington State on Wednesday, especially from deep where it finished just 2 for 12 from 3-point range. If not for 21 turnovers from the Cougars and some painful errors from Wazzu in the final minutes, ASU would be heading home.
The Ducks won’t give the Sun Devils much wiggle room on Thursday. Oregon has turned the ball over an average of only 8.8 times per game during its five-game run and is among the most efficient attacks in college hoops, posting 77.4 points per game in that same span and ranking 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.com.
Arizona State was able to overcome the absences of freshmen standouts Marcus Bagley and Josh Christopher (combined 25.1 points per game) in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament but will struggle to keep pace with the Ducks. The Sun Devils have posted scores of 64, 59 and 61 in their last three contest.
PREDICTION: Oregon -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Oregon’s defense has dragged a little bit, even during the team’s five-game winning run. The Ducks have allowed more than 68 points per game and watched opponents fire at 49.5 percent from the field in those games, which translated into a perfect 5-0 Over streak.
That said, bookies are banking on another high-scoring finish and have opened this total at 147 points – the second tallest Over/Under Oregon has faced all season. Before that run of Overs, the Ducks had strung together five straight Under results, including the February 11 road win in Tempe which stayed below the 151-point total.
Arizona State’s defense is putrid, but it was very active in the win over WSU, creating those 21 turnovers – nine of which were steals. The Sun Devils, who usually love to push the pace on offense (ranked 24th in adjusted tempo), will get drawn into a methodical matchup with the Ducks, who drag out possessions and sit 246th in tempo.
PREDICTION: Under 147 (-110)
Arizona State vs Oregon betting card
- Oregon -8.5 (-110)
- Under 147 (-110)
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