The LSU Tigers are a lock for the NCAA Tournament thanks to a high-powered offense, but they’ll try to improve their seeding with a strong showing in the SEC Tournament.
The Tigers open the conference tourney as 1-point favorites going against an Ole Miss Rebels team that has won eight of their last 10 games, going 8-2 ATS in the process. Who will cover the spread in this SEC showdown?
Find out in our best free Ole Miss vs. LSU picks and predictions for NCAA hoops action on Friday, March 12, with tipoff at 9:25 p.m. ET.
Ole Miss vs LSU odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonLSU opened -1.5 and edged down to -1 at TwinSpires, where ticket count is 4/1 on the Tigers, but money is 2/1 on Ole Miss, including some sharp play. The total moved from 143.5 to 144, with ticket count and money both running 2/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Ole Miss Rebels vs LSU Tigers betting preview
Injuries
Ole Miss: None.
LSU: Shareef O'Neal F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-2 in Ole Miss's seven games this season against the Top 5 scoring offenses in the SEC. Find more NCAA betting trends for Ole Miss vs. LSU.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
LSU closed the regular season winning five of its last seven games, looking like an offensive juggernaut in the process and averaging 85.4 points per game over that stretch. Thanks to that run, LSU now ranks fifth in the nation in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss comes into this game hot, winning eight of its last 10 games, going 8-2 ATS in the process, which includes an impressive 76-59 win over South Carolina as 7-point faves in the second round of the SEC tournament.
The Rebel defense is suffocating and ranks 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing a miniscule 61.6 points per contest over the last 10 games. But the question for this matchup is whether Ole Miss’s elite defense is good enough to keep the Rebels within the number?
Well, a closer look at Ole Miss’s schedule reveals the Rebels have had some trouble against the SEC’s better offensive units. In seven games against the top five scoring offenses in the SEC (Arkansas, LSU, Alabama, Georgia and Auburn), the Rebels have allowed 75 points per game, and that includes a 75-61 loss to LSU back on Jan. 9.
And if Ole Miss can’t slow down LSU, it doesn’t have the offense to keep up. The Rebels rank 116th in adjusted offensive efficiency and rank second to last in the SEC in scoring, putting up just 68.7 points per game.
We’re betting LSU overpowers Ole Miss in this matchup and are laying the points with the favorite.
PREDICTION: LSU -1.0 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The total for this SEC showdown hit the board at 144, which is pretty good considering the lone matchup between Ole Miss and LSU closed at 149. A number they failed to reach by 13 points.
While we noted the Rebels struggle more against strong offensive teams, that doesn’t mean they’re just going to just let LSU run all over them. It’s fair to assume the Tigers will fall in the 72-78 point range with the way they are playing right now.
And on the other side, LSU isn’t a great defensive team, but that might not matter because Ole Miss is one of the worst shooting teams in the country, ranking 225th in effective field goal percentage and 327th in 3-point shooting percentage. This matchup is a good bet to fall Under the number once again.
PREDICTION: Under 144 (-110)
Ole Miss vs LSU betting card
- LSU -1.0 (-110)
- Under 144 (-110)
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