The Arkansas Razorbacks have one of their best teams in years and have a legitimate chance to win their first SEC Conference Tournament title since 2000.
But the journey for the Hogs begins with a tough test as they’ll face off against the Missouri Tigers, who upset Arkansas in Fayetteville, and took the Razorbacks to overtime in their second matchup. Who will win and cover this time around?
Find out in our best free Missouri vs. Arkansas picks and predictions for NCAA hoops action on Friday, March 12, with tipoff at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Missouri vs Arkansas odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonArkansas landed on TwinSpires’ odds board at -4 and is out to -5.5 as of 3:30 p.m. ET. It’s all Arkansas on spread action, with tickets running 5/1 and money 8/1 on the Razorbacks. TwinSpires said Missouri is shaping up to be one of the book’s biggest needs today. The total moved from 150 to 149, with ticket count dead even and money 2/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks betting preview
Injuries
Missouri: No injuries to report.
Arkansas: Jaylin Williams F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Arkansas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Missouri vs. Arkansas.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The good news for Arkansas is that it’s playing its best basketball of the season at the right time. The Razorbacks come into this one winners of eight-straight ball games and haven’t lost a conference game since a Jan.16 matchup at Alabama.
Arkansas is going to be a dangerous team to play in March because it is so balanced and can beat you in a ton of different ways. The Razorbacks rank 28th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency according to the KenPom college basketball ratings.
They are led by guard Moses Moody who looks like one of the best players in the country. The freshman is averaging 17.5 points, with 5.7 rebounds, and is shooting 38.6 percent from beyond the arc. Moody and the rest of the Hogs will be a handful for Mizzou.
The Tigers are coming off a hard-fought 73-70 win over Georgia in the second round but failed to cover the 6-point spread. The win was just Missouri’s third in their last eight games, and while the Tigers have a strong offense led by the backcourt duo of Dru Smith and Xavier Pinson, their questionable-at-times defense has held them back.
Missouri has allowed 76.3 points per game over its last eight games and will also be at a big disadvantage on the glass in this game.
While Mizzou has played Arkansas well this season, the Razorbacks just seem to be peaking at the right time and are the more well-rounded team. Take the Hogs to cover as slight chalk.
PREDICTION: Arkansas -3 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The total went 1-0-1 when these two SEC foes met this season, landing exactly on the 149 number the first time around and followed that up by needing overtime to go Over the 150.5 total in the second matchup, putting up 146 points in regulation. So, the total of 148 for this matchup seems pretty spot on.
The Razorbacks are the highest-scoring team in the SEC, putting up 83.3 points per game and that number has bumped up to 84.9 over the last seven games. And while Mizzou’s offense can be inconsistent, they are capable of going off at any point. We’re betting this one is a bit of a shootout. Take the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 148 (-110)
Missouri vs Arkansas betting card
- Arkansas -3 (-110)
- Over 148 (-110)
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