The Alabama Crimson Tide are in the midst of arguably the greatest season in program history and entered the SEC Tournament winners of six of their last seven games.
But the Tide’s quarterfinals matchup will be a tough one, as they’ll face a scrappy Mississippi State Bulldogs team that is coming off an upset win over Kentucky and went 2-0 ATS against Alabama this season.
Check out our best free Mississippi State vs. Alabama picks and predictions for NCAA hoops action on Friday, March 12, with tipoff at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Mississippi State vs Alabama odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonNinety minutes before this noon ET tipoff, Alabama sits as an 8-point favorite at FanDuel, down a half-point from Thursday night’s -8.5 opener. It’s two-way action with a lean toward the Crimson Tide, who are taking 57 percent of spread bets and 54 percent of spread money. The total is up to 141.5 from a 140.5 opener, with 76 percent of bets/85 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMississippi State Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide betting preview
Injuries
Mississippi State: No injuries to report.
Alabama: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-3 in Mississippi State’s last 10 games overall, and 3-1 in Alabama’s last four games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Alabama.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Right off the bat, we have to say, Alabama is legit. The Crimson Tide are a talented and balanced bunch that can beat you in a multitude of ways.
They have four starters who average double-digit points, and three that score over 12 per game. That offense ranks 42nd in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring 79.6 points per game and leading the SEC in 3-point shooting.
But where Alabama really hangs its hat is on defense. The Tide rank third in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and are one of the best teams in the country when it comes to opponent effective field goal percentage and defending the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot just 29 percent from 3-point range.
But unfortunately for Alabama, Mississippi State is the type of team that can match Alabama physically on the defensive end, and does its best work on offense on the inside. Mississippi State ranks 49th in adjusted defensive efficiency and only Ole Miss gave up fewer points per game than the Bulldogs' 65.7.
That’s exactly what they did in their win over Kentucky, outrebounding them 47-41 and hitting nearly 50 percent of their shots while limiting the Wildcats to just 41 percent from the floor. That is the recipe for success against Alabama as well.
Mississippi State held Alabama to 37.5 percent shooting, including 31.5 percent from deep in their two meetings this season. While the Tide won those games, the Bulldogs were able to keep them close and covered. Don’t be surprised if that trend continues.
PREDICTION: Mississippi State +9 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
When it comes to the total, 141 is quite a bit lower than the two meetings between these SEC foes earlier in the season. The first matchup, back on Jan. 23, went Over the 148 total by six points, but the second matchup stayed Under the 147.5 total by a big 24.5 points.
We’ve already spoken to the fact that both Alabama and Mississippi State have strong defenses and are good enough to keep scoring down in this one. The Bulldogs rank 12th in the SEC in scoring at 69.4 points per game, and while Alabama puts up solid scoring numbers, they aren’t the greatest shooting team, ranking 11th in the SEC in field goal percentage.
Mississippi State knows this has to be a slow-paced, grind it out sort of game if it wants its SEC Tournament run to continue, which very much favors the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 141 (-110)
Mississippi State vs Alabama betting card
- Mississippi State +9 (-110)
- Under 141 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NCAA Mississippi State vs. Alabama picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our NCAA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on college basketball?
You can bet on college basketball odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NCAA moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of prop odds. Head over to our best sportsbooks for college basketball betting in your area.
