The NIT quarterfinals tip off when the No. 2 Richmond Spiders clash with the No. 4 Mississippi State Bulldogs at UNT Coliseum Thursday afternoon.
Both teams upset their way out of the opening round of the tournament as 4.5-point underdogs, with Richmond knocking off Toledo 76-66 and Mississippi State defeating Saint Louis 75-68 last weekend – adding to an opening round of the NIT that saw dogs going 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS.
Enjoy our free NIT picks and predictions for Mississippi State vs. Richmond on March 25.
Mississippi State vs Richmond odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick Everson
Mississippi State opened as a 2.5-point favorite at TwinSpires and is up to -4 as of 5 p.m. ET, with ticket count just shy of 2/1 and money 3/1 on the favored Bulldogs. The total inched from 137.5 to 137, with 55 percent of tickets on the Under and 60 percent of money on the Over.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Richmond Spiders betting preview
Injuries
Mississippi State: None.
Richmond: Blake Francis G (Questionable), Grant Golden C (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bulldogs are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Richmond.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Odds for this NIT quarterfinal matchup took a while to hit the board despite the bracket being set last Saturday. Injuries to Richmond’s two leading scorers held up the line, with starting center Grant Golden out of action with a broken finger and guard Blake Francis listed as a game-time decision.
According to Spiders head coach Chris Mooney, Francis did more at practice earlier this week than he has in a long time, slowed by hip and back injuries that have sidelined the team’s leading scorer (16.1 ppg) since March 1. While his status is still a last-second call, the slim spread would indicate that books expect Francis to give it a go after the layoff between rounds.
Mississippi State is a slow-paced attack that wants to limit the amount of time opponents get with the basketball, ranked 297th in tempo and eating up 18.3 seconds per offensive set, averaging only 69.8 offensive possessions per game. When foes do get to touch the ball, the Bulldogs limit their looks with an effective field goal rate of 47 percent on defense.
Losing Golden is a big hit for the Spiders' offense, as the 6-foot-10 senior was scoring almost 13 points and pulling down six rebounds per game, anchoring a steady interior offense that shoots 66.3 percent at the rim. Now, with Golden out and Francis up in the air, the Spiders will have a tough time finding points against a very stingy MSU squad.
A lot of NIT games come down to which team really wants to be there, and the Bulldogs have had success in the “other tournament” recently. Ben Howland led MSU to the NIT semifinals back in 2018, playing in four straight overtime games and going 3-1 ATS in those NIT contests.
PREDICTION: Mississippi State -2 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
As mentioned, Mississippi State runs a slow-motion offense and pushes back with only 69.4 points per contest. The Bulldogs’ 74 points versus Saint Louis tied their scoring high over the past nine games, a stretch in which MSU has gone 3-6 Over/Under.
The Spiders have also leaned Under in their recent efforts, staying below the total in five straight games and boasting a 2-7 Over/Under count in their last nine outings. Golden’s contributions are off the board and Francis’ health – even if he plays – could limit his output.
Richmond knows it will need to turn up the defensive intensity if it’s to win this quarterfinal matchup, and did just that against Toledo in the tournament opener. The Spiders, who fell behind early, locked the Rockets down to 9-of-32 shooting and a mere 28 points in the second half.
PREDICTION: Under 138.5 (-110)
Mississippi State vs Richmond betting card
- Mississippi State -2 (-110)
- Under 138.5 (-110)
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