Bridge the gap to the Big Dance by betting on NIT Tournament action when the No. 1 Memphis Tigers take on the No. 2 Boise State Broncos in the quarterfinals Thursday.
Memphis took down Dayton in the tournament opener, winning 71-60 as a 5.5-point favorite – the lone chalk to cover the spread in the opening round of the NIT. Boise State snuck past SMU in an 85-84 victory as a 1-point pup last Thursday for its first win in four games going back to the MWC schedule.
Check out our free NIT Tournament picks and predictions for Boise State vs. Memphis on March 25.
Boise State vs Memphis odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDraftKings pegged Memphis a 4.5-point chalk late Sunday night and stuck there until today, game day, before nudging down to -4 early this morning, then going up to -5 early this evening. As of 7 p.m. ET, the Tigers are still -5 and taking a vast majority of point-spread action, at 86 percent of bets/89 percent of money. The total is pinned to 143, with the Under getting 63 percent of bets/76 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Boise State Broncos at Memphis Tigers betting preview
Injuries
Boise State: Abu Kigab F (Out), Max Rice G (Out).
Memphis: Alex Lomax G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 11-3-1 in Tigers’ last 15 games vs. a team above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Boise State vs. Memphis.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Memphis is rare air for the NIT, ranked No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom.com – a metric normally reserved to teams chasing a spot in the Final Four at this time of year. The Tigers, however, were left out of the NCAA Tournament but didn’t let that deter them from putting it on Dayton in the opening round last week.
Memphis is extremely disruptive on both ends of the floor, ramping up the tempo and taking opponents out of their comfort zone. The Tigers – who rank 47th in adjusted tempo – force foes into that style of play and, because of it, benefit from their mistakes. They induce an average of 16 turnovers an outing and crash the offensive glass for 11 boards per game, manifesting itself into easy buckets and second-chance points.
Boise State has faced and beaten some solid defenses this season but most of those were plodding attacks that chewed up shot clock and limited opponents’ touches – none played at the high gear of Penny Hardaway’s team.
The Broncos stumbled at the end of the MWC schedule with three losses in the final three games (two to San Diego State) before falling to Nevada in the conference tournament opener. Boise State is playing without two of its standout offensive contributors in Abu Kigab and Max Rice (combined 17.9 points per game), and that will hurt against this Memphis defense.
PREDICTION: Memphis -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Boise State does a solid job protecting the basketball and is stingy when it comes to the offensive glass, allowing foes to snatch less than seven offensive rebounds a contest. The Broncos are one of the biggest teams in the country (19th) and own an effective height metric of +1.3 – measuring rebounding and blocks against a team’s size.
The Tigers are dependent on those extra-scoring looks created from turnovers and offensive boards and may find themselves missing those transition buckets and forced into a halfcourt set. That said, Memphis has no qualms about settling down and running through the offensive playbook, boasting a 0.616 assist-to-field goal ratio which ranks 11th highest in the country.
The Broncos pose some push back on the defensive end, holding opponents to just over 65 points per game on the year, but have topped the total in their two postseason efforts due to hot shooting from all sides in those contests. Memphis’ length, speed, and depth on the defensive end will disrupt the BSU playbook and force some bad shots.
The Tigers have gone Under in two of their postseason games, including Thursday’s win over the Flyers, and are 2-7 Over/Under in their last nine contests.
PREDICTION: Under 143 (-110)
Boise State vs Memphis betting card
- Memphis -4.5 (-110)
- Under 143 (-110)
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