The Miami Hurricanes got Louisville's best punch yesterday and survived, now it faces the Virginia Cavaliers with a trip to the ACC Championship on the line.
Both teams played yesterday, and the Canes had one of the more physical games I've seen this postseason. That makes me think this one could be a grinder.
Read why I like a low-scoring game in my Miami vs. Virginia predictions and college basketball picks for Friday, March 13.
Miami vs Virginia prediction
Miami vs Virginia best bet
Miami vs Virginia best bet: Under 144.5 (-110)
The Virginia Cavaliers still play at a methodical pace that naturally suppresses totals. Even without the extreme Tony Bennett tempo, they're comfortable draining the shot clock and allowing almost no transition chances.
That forces opponents into a half-court offense, which is where the Miami Hurricanes struggle. Miami leans heavily on post scoring, but that's exactly where Virginia excels defensively, ranking in the 98th percentile against direct post-ups and 97th percentile against bigs cutting to the rim.
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Miami vs Virginia same-game parlay
Virginia should be closer to -200 on the moneyline than the current prices, so they lead off my same-game parlay. The Cavs simply have much better defense; although they are somewhat lacking athletically, that doesn't outweigh the advantage.
I paired that with Thijs De Ridder to exceed his rebound total. It's pretty much an auto-bet at this point in any low-scoring game, I feel. He's a strong rebounder, and this is a low number. I finished with Malik Reneau, dishing multiple assists.
This is a bet that Virginia's very strong interior defense forces him into a passer more than a scorer.
Miami vs Virginia SGP
- Virginia moneyline
- Thijs De Ridder Over 5.5 rebounds
- Malik Reneau Over 1.5 assists
Our beyond the arc SGP: Hall Pass!
Sometimes, an Under-lean is a belief that the game is played more in the half-court, and sometimes, that tends to lead to an increase in assists. That's the case here.
My longshot adds Dallin Hall over 4.5 assists to the party. Miami has struggled all season to defend attack-and-kicks, and he's the primary facilitator on such actions.
Miami vs Virginia SGP
- Thijs De Ridder Over 5.5 rebounds
- Malik Reneau Over 1.5 assists
- Dallin Hall Over 4.5 assists
Miami vs Virginia odds
- Spread: Miami +4.5 (-105) | Virginia -4.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Miami +157 | Virginia -180
- Over/Under: Over 144 (-110) | Under 144 (-110)
Miami vs Virginia betting trend to know
Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 25 games (+17.65 Units / 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Miami vs Virginia.
How to watch Miami vs Virginia
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Friday, March 13, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Miami vs Virginia key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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