Maryland vs Wisconsin Odds, Picks and Predictions: Terrapins Can Exploit Badgers' Weaknesses

A critical early season Big Ten matchup brings us undefeated Maryland traveling to Wisconsin tonight. 

First-year boss Kevin Willard has the Terps rolling. They've won three of the last four games by double-digits and, in addition, are fresh off a home win against ranked Illinois. Jahmir Young led the way there with 24 points.

Wisconsin has had an impressive start to the season as well. The Badgers are 6-2, coming off a hard-fought win against Marquette over the weekend. They've looked like a threat every time they've taken the floor this season, and their only two losses have come to Kansas and Wake Forest by a combined four points.

What's the best bet for what figures to be a tightly contested affair? Find out in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Wisconsin vs. Maryland on December 6. 

Maryland vs Wisconsin best odds

Maryland vs Wisconsin picks and predictions

Maryland has dramatically succeeded with creative wing post-ups between Julian Reese and Donta Scott. It's made the post-up aspect of its offense one of the best in the country. The Terrapins have averaged 1.05 points per possession, placing them in the upper echelon of college basketball.

Beyond all that's going on in the post, I don't believe the Badgers can stop Maryland's dribble penetration to the degree they need to. Wake Forest and Marquette sliced them up on high-ball screens, and I'd agree that the Terps are more effective in scoring than both of those programs.

Wisconsin's defensive numbers against isolation drives are dreadful. The sample size is small but consistent enough through multiple seasons that you'd expect it to continue into this one. Through its eight games, the Badgers are allowing nearly a point per possession on isolation drives as their guards aren't the quickest at staying in front of their opponent.

Maryland is well-equipped to attack the Badgers. Again, its isolation drives are limited in data, but the numbers posted up to now are still impressive. The Terrapins have shot an eFG% of 54% on isolation drives, which currently leads the Big Ten. They are also averaging just over a point per possession on these sets, which is near the top of the country.

Maryland is really good, it has the better coach here, and top-to-bottom possesses more talent. This game comes down to the Terps having a variety of ways of scoring that Wisconsin can't match. Anytime you play the Badgers, you have to worry about their spot-up set scoring and, in general, just going nuclear from deep.

In this short season, though, Maryland has the sixth-best spot-up defense. That makes this one feel like a nightmare matchup for Wisconsin.

My best bet: Maryland +1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Maryland vs Wisconsin spread analysis

In this early portion of the season, Kevin Willard has to be considered a frontrunner for Coach of the Year. Maryland has not only gone undefeated record-wise, but it also has one of the best records against the spread in basketball. The Terps have covered in seven of their eight wins and are perfect on the road ATS.

As we've discussed, we'll ride with the Terps in this spot. They have a great matchup in this game, and it will likely come down to who can find buckets in critical junctions. Maryland is much more well-suited to do that here than Wisconsin.

Oddly enough, the road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings between these two teams. Of course, that doesn't mean a ton here, but it does suggest that a mostly veteran Maryland team won't be too bothered by the hostile atmosphere in Madison.

Maryland vs Wisconsin Over/Under analysis

ShotQuality ranks both of these teams as a bit lucky to be where they're at, record-wise. You'll see some jump-shot regression from both teams in this matchup. That's one of the things that trend toward the Under, among others.

Maryland will likely do an excellent job of slowing down Wisconsin's offense beyond the arc; it's a big part of what the Terrapins do. As I've already illustrated, Maryland is elite defensively here. On the other side of the ball, I believe the Terps have a nice amount of offensive advantages, but they will still struggle with the game's physicality from time to time. With those two things in mind, I'm going to take a shot on the Under. 

The trends indeed suggest the Under as well. It's gone that way in four of Wisconsin's last five home games and cashed four straight times in Maryland's mid-week games. 

Maryland vs Wisconsin betting trend to know

Maryland is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. Find more College basketball betting trends for Maryland vs. Wisconsin.

Maryland vs Wisconsin game info

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