The West Regional looks destined to pit the Purdue Boilermakers against Arizona. The best chance at preventing that 1 vs. 2 matchup hinges on the Texas Longhorns’ shooting on Thursday.
These Texas vs. Purdue player props start with that Longhorns’ hope, though Texas remains a long shot.
Read more in my March Madness picks for March 26.
Texas vs Purdue props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jordan Pope |
Over 2.5 threes | +125 |
 Braden Smith |
Over 1.5 threes | -105 |
| Matas Volkietaitis |
Under 8.5 rebounds | -145 |
Prop #1: Jordan Pope Over 2.5 threes
Senior point guard Jordan Pope has kept the Texas Longhorns afloat with his shooting, hitting three 3-pointers in each of their last two games. When you win by eight and then six points, those threes were clearly pivotal.
Texas will need even more from its best shooter against the Purdue Boilermakers. Frankly, Pope is Texas’s only shooter, hitting 36.4% of his 6.4 attempts per game. The next best numbers on the roster are Tramon Mark’s 31.4% on 4.0 attempts per game.
The Boilermakers have the most efficient offense in the country, and few teams can keep up with it on a good day. The Longhorns’ best and possibly only hope is Pope proving efficient from deep.
Prop #2: Braden Smith Over 1.5 threes
Expect this prop to move further toward -110 or even -120. Over the course of Wednesday, it moved from plus-money to -105.
And it is still mispriced.
While Braden Smith did go 0-of-4 from deep against Miami in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, he is too experienced to let such a performance bother him.
Smith hit multiple 3-pointers in 13 of 20 Big Ten games this season, part of shooting 40.4% from beyond the arc in conference play.
Texas doesn't provide much ball pressure, and Purdue should be able to initiate its offense exactly how it pleases. That will lead to featuring the best point guard in program history.
Prop #3: Matas Volkietaitis Under 8.5 rebounds
Consider this to be a bet on Purdue’s offense. If it does not miss all that many shots, there will be fewer rebounds for Texas sophomore seven-footer Matas Vokietaitis to track down.
And once the Boilermakers have a lead, they should begin to eat plenty of clock and grind down this game. That will only further lessen the available rebounds for Vokietaitis.
Then factor in Boilermaker's senior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn. While he may be three inches shorter than Vokietaitis, Kaufman-Renn boasts significantly higher rebound rates on both ends of the floor.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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