The only thing worse than not getting any of your March Madness survivor picks through the first two days of the tournament is getting all of your survivor picks through the first two days of the tournament.
Of course, I kid. It is a great problem to have, though perhaps not an uncommon one after a first round that featured exactly one win from a multi-bucket underdog (High Point).
How should you navigate this Round of 32 while keeping your options open for next weekend? My March Madness picks find teams that are favored to win Saturday or Sunday but should still be multi-bucket underdogs in the Sweet Sixteen.
Best second-round March Madness survivor picks
Arkansas
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Saturday: Arkansas
Could the Arkansas Razorbacks lose to the High Point Panthers? It is March, so anything is possible.
Could Arkansas make a deep run into the Elite Eight or perhaps even the Final Four? I'm not counting on it.
The Razorbacks are a uniquely bad team to bet on upsetting Arizona, provided the Wildcats beat Utah State on Sunday.
Arizona’s greatest weakness is its abandonment of 3-pointers on offense, taking them at the third-lowest rate in the country. If an opponent gets hot from deep, the Wildcats struggle to keep up. That becomes a simple math problem.
But Arkansas treats 3-pointers with similar disdain. It ranks No. 313 in the country in frequency of 3-point attempts.
The Panthers’ excessive number of 3-pointer attempts against Wisconsin was actually abnormal. This season, they have shot from deep on 43.3% of their field-goal attempts, vs. 54.1% of their looks on Thursday.
There is no logical reason to expect High Point to duplicate that. The concern for them will become keeping up in an up-tempo game with Arkansas. More possessions should only emphasize the Razorbacks’ talent advantages.
Also considered: Vanderbilt as a 1.5-point favorite vs. Nebraska, but likely a three-score underdog next week provided Florida beats Iowa on Sunday; Gonzaga as a 6.5-point favorite vs. Texas, but likely a two-score underdog next week provided Purdue beats Miami on Sunday. The risk with that thought is more about the Longhorns upsetting the Bulldogs, something multiple Covers experts pondered this weekend.
Sunday: St. John's
To put this in a way that no Kansas Jayhawks fan would argue: There is no reason to believe in these Jayhawks against an assertive defense.
To put this in a way that no one who watched all of the Cal Baptist vs. Kansas game would argue: If Jayhawks star freshman Darryn Peterson could not break loose from the defensive pressure to get the ball in the final minutes on Friday night, there is no reason to believe he will come anywhere near impacting clutch time against the St. John’s Red Storm.
Peterson’s 28 points on 11-of-24 shooting became far too quiet as the Lancers stormed back into the game. Rick Pitino might render the controversial wing an utter afterthought on Sunday.
St. John’s is not much of a favorite. A bucket or so is a stressor in a survivor competition, but Pitino deserves deference compared to Bill Self.
One cannot help but notice that college basketball players started being paid above the table as 2022-23 rosters were being built, and Kansas has not advanced out of the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament in the three Marches since.
Furthermore, the Jayhawks have lost at least 10 games in each of the last three seasons, something Self had done only twice in the previous 24 years.
This name-brand matchup will feature two focused defenses. Your survivor bid could do worse than trusting the better coach and the more experienced team before it is a double-digit underdog next weekend against Duke.
Also considered: Alabama as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite against Texas Tech, but presumably a double-digit underdog next weekend provided Michigan beats Saint Louis on Saturday; Virginia in what is effectively a pick’em matchup with Tennessee, either team probably at least a five-point underdog against Iowa State next weekend. But with Cyclones star Joshua Jefferson suffering an ankle injury on Friday, some caution would be wise in these matchups and wondering about their futures.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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