The Minnesota Lynx may be inevitable. After two years of frustrations, they are exceeding all expectations. Last postseason, the Phoenix Mercury delivered those frustrations.
Do not overlook Minnesota’s desire for repeated revenge. My Lynx vs. Mercury predictions and these WNBA picks fully expect Minnesota to want to embarrass Phoenix on the first day of the Commissioner’s Cup on Monday, June 1.
Lynx vs Mercury prediction
Lynx vs Mercury best bet: Lynx -3.5 (-110)
It is too early in the season for power rankings to have caught up to realities. No one expected the Minnesota Lynx to be atop the standings and rankings in nearly every possible way before Napheesa Collier returned to the lineup.
Most notably, the Lynx have the No. 1 defensive rating, more than three points per 100 possessions better than the No. 2 defense. That should be a particular problem for the Phoenix Mercury, given its No. 9 offensive rating.
If power ratings were based only on this season, Minnesota would be favored by more than 6 points, not just 3.5.
COVERS INTEL: The Mercury’s offense ranks No. 12 in the WNBA in assist ratio, last in offensive rebounding and No. 11 in 3-point percentage. Simply enough, Phoenix does nothing well on offense.
Lynx vs Mercury same-game parlay
Trust Minnesota’s defense. With all due respect to Collier, arguably the best player in the world, this last month has made it clear that the Lynx's defensive dominance of the last couple of seasons was as much about the system as it was about Collier.
Opponents shoot 27.0% from beyond the arc against Minnesota, the worst in the league, and 4.2 percentage points worse than the No. 3 such defense. Shooting 38.4% from the field overall is an even worse indicator.
It should be no surprise that five of the last six Lynx games went Under their totals, and as the Mercury’s offense stalls, Minnesota can devote multiple defenders to Kahleah Copper, who is already shooting a woeful 16.1% from deep this season.
Lynx vs Mercury SGP
- Lynx -3.5
- Under 166.5
- Kahleah Copper Under 19.5 points
- Best bet: 1-1, +0.0 units
- SGP: 0-2, -2.0 units
Lynx vs Mercury odds
- Spread: Lynx -3.5 | Mercury +3.5
- Moneyline: Lynx -160 | Mercury +135
- Over/Under: Over 166.5 | Under 166.5
Lynx vs Mercury trend
Minnesota is not just 7-1 against the spread this season. The Lynx have exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 9.1 points per game even when including the sole ATS loss. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Lynx vs Mercury
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AX |
| Date | Monday, June 1, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Lynx vs Mercury latest injuries
Lynx: Dorka Juhasz (Out), Napheesa Collier (Out)
Mercury: Sami Whitcomb (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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