Michigan meets Saint Louis on Saturday afternoon with a trip to the Sweet 16 at stake.
It’s a matchup of two teams that have no interest in playing slow, and that should show in this one.
My Michigan vs. Saint Louis predictions and March Madness picks break down why I expect offensive fireworks on March 21.
Saint Louis vs Michigan prediction
Who will win Saint Louis vs Michigan?
Michigan: I just don’t think the Saint Louis Billikens will have enough answers for their size. They are a legitimately good offensive team, and they’ll score, but this feels like a case where their strengths are exceeded by the Michigan Wolverines' strengths.
Saint Louis vs Michigan best bet: Over 161.5 (-116)
Michigan’s defense is a concern without LJ Cason, and it shows up more in high-tempo games, as seen in allowing 80 points to Howard. This matchup could be even faster, amplifying those defensive challenges.
Michigan’s offense is elite across actions, ranking near the top in big cut + rolls, pick + pops, and general inside-out actions. That’s not ideal for Saint Louis, which is smaller and poor defensively at the rim.
Likewise, St. Louis should enjoy some of its own offensive advantages, particularly in transition. Michigan has been well below the national average, allowing 1.02 PPP.
COVERS INTEL: Michigan has scored 85+ points in 8 of their last 10 games, and their offense hasn't dipped below 1.0 points per possession in any game since January. On the other side, Saint Louis has hit 80+ in 7 of their last 10.
Saint Louis vs Michigan same-game parlay
Elliot Cadeau is the offensive engine for Michigan, and his usage has only gone up.
Those rim issues I mentioned for St Louis? They’ll be most exposed by Cadeau facilitating those actions. He’s the primary passer on bigs cutting to the rim, and the Billikens rank in the Bottom 40% of the country defensively against such actions.
Saint Louis vs Michigan SGP
- Over 161.5
- Elliot Cadeau Over 6.5 assists
Our Big Dance SGP: Mara makes his mark
Aday Mara is the best scorer around the rim for the Wolverines. Full stop.
With that in mind, taking him to exceed his points total is a proverbial layup given the narrative of our best bet.
I paired that with Amari McCottry Over 10.5 points, as he has the highest usage of any Saint Louis player in transition.
Saint Louis vs Michigan SGP
- Over 161.5
- Elliot Cadeau Over 6.5 assists
- Aday Mara Over 14.5 points
- Amari McCottry Over 10.5 points
Saint Louis vs Michigan odds
- Spread: Saint Louis +12.5 | Michigan -12.5
- Moneyline: Saint Louis +680 | Michigan -1100
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 | Under 161.5
Saint Louis vs Michigan betting trend to know
Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 20 games (+14.00 Units / 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Saint Louis vs. Michigan.
How to watch Saint Louis vs Michigan
| Location | KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY |
| Date | Saturday, March 21, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 12:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Saint Louis vs Michigan key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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