It’s time for the title contenders to prove themselves against stiff competition as March Madness reaches the Sweet 16 on Thursday and Friday.
I’ve found a variety of picks that I like for my Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament parlays on both days, from taking the Over in a likely shootout to backing some of the hottest teams in the tournament to keep up their form.
Read on to see my free March Madness picks for the third round.
March Madness Sweet 16 parlays
Thursday, March 26
Texas vs. Purdue Over 148
Iowa vs. Nebraska Under 131.5
Arizona -7.5
The Purdue Boilermakers may have the most efficient offense in college basketball, and the Texas Longhorns aren’t far behind. The result is that while neither team plays particularly quickly, they still put up plenty of points, with both schools averaging Over 82 points per game.
Against quality opponents, neither team can expect to score quite that much, but Purdue has still hit the Over in each of its first two tournament games, while Texas has put up an average of 76.5 PPG in its.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the more reliable Under teams in college basketball, with the Under going 23-11 in their games. That has continued in March Madness, where Nebraska’s first two games have both hit the Under, including a 76-47 win over the Troy Trojans.
While not as offensively deficient as the school’s football team, the Iowa Hawkeyes have also gone to the Under in both tournament games and rank 361st in the nation in adjusted tempo at KenPom. These teams are built to play a slow, grindy game, and I love the Under here.
Finally, the Arizona Wildcats have walked through the first two rounds and head into the Sweet 16 on an 11-game winning streak. They’ve won their first two March Madness games by double digits, rank in the Top 5 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and freshman guard Brayden Burries continues to shine, scoring 17 PPG on 64.7% shooting from the floor.
Can the Arkansas Razorbacks stop this run? Arkansas will try to run and gun with the Wildcats, as the Razorbacks put up 90.2 PPG. But nobody has scored more than 83 points against Arizona since its first game of the season, and elite teams like Florida have shown that Arkansas can be taken advantage of on defense while also keeping the Razorbacks in check on the offensive end.
Arizona will happily run with Arkansas and pull away in the second half.
Friday, March 27
Alabama +9
Michigan State +2
Iowa State -4
The Alabama Crimson Tide might not be seen as a serious title contender, but they’ve breezed through the first two rounds, putting up 90 points in each game. This is nothing new for the Tide, who average 91.6 PPG and are in the Top 5 in offensive efficiency and tempo at KenPom.
The Michigan Wolverines have the offense to survive a shootout with Alabama, and an elite defense that can make big stops down the stretch. But this isn’t going to be easy, and I expect Alabama to hang tough deep into the second half. While I like Michigan to win outright, I’m taking a generous nine points and backing Alabama to cover.
One of the tightest matchups in the Sweet 16 pits the Michigan State Spartans against the UConn Huskies. These teams play a very similar brand of basketball, leaning more on defense while slowing the pace. Both also look somewhat vulnerable, losing two of their last four games before the NCAA Tournament began.
Michigan State has more big wins, including an 11-6 record against Quad 1 opponents this year. And if Jeremy Fears Jr. runs the game as he did in the second round vs. Louisville, when he dished out 16 assists while also scoring 12 points, he’s also a potential difference maker. The Spartans are a slight underdog when they should be a slight favorite.
The Iowa State Cyclones had one of the most impressive first weekends of March Madness of any team, winning their first two contests by an average margin of 26.5 points. The Cyclones have now covered in six straight, with the only straight-up loss being a two-point setback on the road at Arizona.
Much of the attention has been focused on their defense, which allowed only 65.3 PPG, but the Cyclones can score. The team is shooting a blistering 38.7% from 3-point range and averaging 95 PPG in its first two tournament games. I can’t see the Tennessee Volunteers dealing with that firepower, especially against an outstanding defense, which is why I’m taking Iowa State to cover to wrap up our Friday parlay.
Not intended for use in MA.
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