The No. 11-seeded Texas Longhorns look to continue their Cinderella run as they face the No. 2-seeded Purdue Boilermakers in the Sweet 16 on Thursday.
Both teams have highly efficient attacks and vulnerable defenses, which is why my Texas vs. Purdue predictions are targeting the total.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this West Region showdown on March 26.
Texas vs Purdue prediction
Texas vs Purdue best bet: Over 148 (-110)
The Purdue Boilermakers have the highest-rated offense in KenPom history. Meanwhile, the Texas Longhorns rank just 81st in adjusted defense — easily the worst rating of any team left in the tourney.
The Boilermakers shoot 38.8% from deep and will torch a Longhorns squad that struggles to defend the arc. That said, Purdue has also been awful defensively, ranking just 334th in opponent 2PT% (56.7%) and 276th in opponent 3PT% (36.1%) since the start of January.
Texas has a highly efficient offense and excels at attacking inside with Dailyn Swain (17.4 ppg, 54.5 FG%) and Matas Vokietaitis (15.7 ppg, 61.9 FG%).
COVERS INTEL: Analytics sites Evan Miya, Haslametrics, KenPom, and Bart Torvik are projecting between 152 and 156 points in this game.
Texas vs Purdue same-game parlay
I also expect Purdue's elite offense to have success, which is why I'm betting the Over 148.5 in this SGP. After all, the Boilermakers rank first in the country in adjusted offense while the Longhorns are 81st in adjusted defense.
Texas' poor 3-point defense will be torched by Purdue guard Fletcher Loyer who shoots 43.3% from deep and has knocked down more than 2.5 threes in five straight games.
Dailyn Swain has been held in check so far in the NCAA Tourney, but he scored 18+ points in 11 of his final 14 SEC games. He'll rediscover that form in a favorable matchup against Purdue, which lacks a long, athletic wing defender capable of containing him.
Texas vs Purdue SGP
- Over 148
- Fletcher Loyer Over 2.5 threes
- Dailyn Swain Over 16.5 points
Our Big Dance SGP: Swain Song
Swain isn't just a highly-efficient scorer; he's also the Longhorns' best passer, dropping 6+ dimes in four of his last six games.
If Swain has a big game and the Longhorns put up points, there's a chance their Cinderella run continues. There's a lot of volatility when it comes to perimeter shooting at neutral sites, and if Purdue's outside shots aren't dropping, this game becomes a coin flip.
Texas vs Purdue SGP
- Dailyn Swain Over 16.5 points
- Dailyn Swain Over 4.5 assists
- Texas team total Over 70.5
- Texas moneyline
Texas vs Purdue odds
- Spread: Texas +6.5 | Purdue -6.5
- Moneyline: Texas +265 | Purdue -320
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Texas vs Purdue betting trend to know
The Longhorns have gone Over their team total in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.70 Units / 27% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Purdue.
How to watch Texas vs Purdue
| Location | SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose, CA |
| Date | Thursday, March 26, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Texas vs Purdue key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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