The NIT may not be the “filet mignon” that the NCAA Tournament is. But with the Sweet 16 still days away, starving hoop heads can sink their teeth into a tasty cut of March Madness meat when the Illinois State Redbirds visit the Dayton Flyers.
The Flyers earned this home quarterfinal contest by barnstorming their first two tournament games, putting up twin 80-point efforts on the road.
Our Illinois State vs. Dayton predictions don’t discount that edge, and my college basketball picks are fond of the Flyers in this matchup on Wednesday, March 25.
Illinois State vs Dayton prediction
Who will win Illinois State vs Dayton?
Dayton: The Dayton Flyers get to come back home after two tournament wins on the road. Game models have Dayton winning over the Illinois State Redbirds, which is what the bookies are saying with this spread.
Illinois State vs Dayton best bet: Dayton -8 (-110)
Home court is key to this quarterfinal contest. Not only can Dayton keep its offense rolling — shooting 52% on the road in the first two games — but it can cool Illinois State’s shooting.
The Redhawks have knocked down 23 3-pointers in their first two NIT tilts, but do see their success from deep drop on the road (32.7%). If Illinois State can’t consistently make those looks, long rebounds fuel the Flyers’ transition attack.
A bigger Dayton team will clean the glass and put ISU on its heels. The Redbirds struggle to slow transition and are among the bottom defenses at protecting the rim.
COVERS INTEL: Dayton’s attacking style is great at drawing fouls and scoring from the foul line. The Flyers rank 12th in opponent fouls and cash in from the stripe at a 75.4% clip (67th). They rank No. 1 in free-throw rate in the country.
Illinois State vs Dayton same-game parlay
As mentioned, the Redbirds' biggest weapon is their 3-point shooting. Dayton hasn’t been the best at protecting the perimeter, watching foes fire at a 35.4% rate. Between Illinois State’s triples and the Flyers scoring with the clock stopped at the line, this 139-point total doesn’t stand a chance.
Illinois State vs Dayton SGP
- Dayton -8
- Over 139
Illinois State vs Dayton odds
- Spread: Illinois State +8 | Dayton -8
- Moneyline: Illinois State +265 | Dayton -330
- Over/Under: Over 139 | Under 139
Illinois State vs Dayton betting trend to know
Illinois State was one of the better home bets in college hoops at 11-4 ATS, but see those profits go POOF on the road, where it is just 5-8 ATS. Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois State vs. Dayton.
How to watch Illinois State vs Dayton
| Location | UD Arena, Dayton, OH |
| Date | Wednesday, March 25, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Illinois State vs Dayton key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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