After a wild Thursday, Friday brought a bit of order back to March Madness, with all the favorites advancing. I’m expecting many of the top teams in the country to show up strong in the second round this weekend.
I’m looking at the chalk to cover — with the one notable exception being Texas A&M — in my Round 2 March Madness parlays. Here’s a look at my free March Madness picks for March 21 and 22.
March Madness Round 2 parlay
Saturday, March 21
Gonzaga -6.5
Vanderbilt -1.5
Texas A&M +10.5
The Gonzaga Bulldogs survived a stiff challenge from Kennesaw State, winning by nine but failing to cover. The continued a trend for the darlings of the West Coast Conference, who have only gone 1-3 against the spread in their last four games as a 19+ point favorite.
But the Zags are still a borderline Top 10 team, far better than a Texas Longhorns team that has only gone 3-6 ATS in its last nine and 3-5 straight up in its last eight. Gonzaga is holding opponents to 39.4% shooting from the field and scores 84.8 ppg, which should be way too much for a mediocre Longhorns defense to handle.
The Vanderbilt Commodores didn’t quite cover against McNeese, but it was another solid win for a team that still isn’t getting the national attention it deserves.
It’s no surprise that the Commodores are the favorites against the Nebraska Cornhuskers despite being the lower seed, as KenPom has them as the No. 10 team in the country overall in net rating and No. 8 in offensive efficiency.
While I’m mostly on the favorites this weekend, the Texas A&M Aggies are an exception to that rule. That’s primarily because of how the Houston Cougars play.
Houston is among the slowest teams in the tournament and ranks fourth in adjusted defensive rating, grinding opponents to a halt over 40 minutes — but not necessarily blowing them out.
Of course, the Aggies play into this pick, too. They play at the opposite pace and have enough offensive weapons to challenge Houston, with four starters averaging double figures this season.
Sunday, March 22
Purdue -7.5
Arizona -12.5
Iowa State -5
The Purdue Boilermakers blasted the Queens University Royals 104-71 in the first round on Friday, making it five straight wins for the Big Ten champions.
The Boilermakers have the most efficient offense in the country, shooting over 50% from the field and 38.5% from 3-point range, both of which should play well against a Miami Hurricanes team that ranks just barely inside the Top 300 nationally in 3-point percentage allowed (35.4%).
The Arizona Wildcats looked every bit like a national title contender on Friday, crushing the LIU Sharks 92-58 to cover a 30.5-point spread. They’re once against heavily favored against the Utah State Aggies, an offensive-minded squad who put up 86 on Villanova in the first round.
The Aggies will find it much harder sledding against these Wildcats, as Arizona has won 10 straight and can not only play enough defense to keep Utah State in check — it has allowed just 68.5 ppg this year — but also shoots the ball at 50.3% from the field and averages 86.3 ppg itself.
The Iowa State Cyclones might be a little under the radar nationally, but they continue to put up excellent results for bettors, covering in their last five games.
The Cyclones are among the best teams in the nation defensively, allowing 65.4 ppg and ranking No. 5 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Cyclones are also a bit underrated offensively, as both Milan Momcilovic (17.1 ppg) and Joshua Jefferson (16.4 ppg) can blow games open with their size and ability to stretch the floor.
The Kentucky Wildcats are lucky to still be in this tournament after their dramatic finish against Santa Clara, and I have no doubt that the Cyclones will put them away on Sunday.
Not intended for use in MA.
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