Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s farewell tour looks to stay the course Saturday night in the Elite Eight of March Madness.
The No. 2 Duke Blue Devils overcame the elite Texas Tech defense in the Sweet 16 to survive and advance. Next up is the No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks, a team riding high after toppling the top-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs.
Duke checks in as 3.5-point favorites, while the total has been set at 148.5. Check out our full Arkansas vs. Duke picks and predictions.
For this article, we’ll be looking at our three favorite prop bets on the board for this thrilling Elite Eight matchup.
Arkansas vs Duke prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis. Each odds widget below represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated US sportsbooks.
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Arkansas vs Duke Elite Eight props
Roach’s new role
The ascendance of Jeremy Roach has been a key storyline for the Duke Blue Devils’ recent success.
Roach first committed to play for Coach K and Duke back in May of 2019. He was long assumed to be the point guard of the future for the Blue Devils, but things didn’t go according to plan in his first year on campus. Roach lost his starting position at one point in the season but has stormed back in a big way to reclaim his spot in the lineup.
After falling out of favor, Roach played more than 30 minutes in a game only twice in a span that lasted from Jan. 31 to Mar. 12. The diminutive point guard has since reclaimed his spot as the floor general, playing 35 minutes in two separate contests in the NCAA Tournament.
He’s been productive while on the floor, averaging 14 points and 4.3 assists. He wasn’t afraid of the big moment in the Sweet 16, taking control of the floor and knocking down big shots when his team needed it most. These are the trust-earning moments that teammates and coaches remember in the Big Dance, and he’s likely to be entrusted with the ball again in a crucial meeting against the Razorbacks in the Elite Eight.
There are a few 9.5-point props for Roach across various books, and we think that number is simply a few points too low. If you prefer to lay less juice, there is an Over 10.5 points prop set at -102 at FanDuel that we recommend as well.
PICK: Jeremy Roach Over 9.5 points (-130 at bet365)
Big players in big moments
Assumed to be taken with a high lottery pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, Banchero is helping his draft stock with his performance thus far in the Big Dance. Through three games in the tournament, the 6’10” freshman is averaging 19.3 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists while chipping in defensively as well.
He’s been particularly proficient from downtown, cashing in multiple 3-pointers in all three contests while shooting 53.8% from behind the arc. Arkansas’ defense is no slouch — it ranks 28th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and just held mighty Gonzaga to only 68 points en route to the Elite Eight. That being said, Texas Tech checks in as the number one team in defensive efficiency, and Banchero had no trouble scorching the nets against them in the Sweet 16, accumulating 22 points while knocking down three triples.
While Arkansas’ defense is legit, it may be a bit overhyped at the moment. It allowed 71 points to Vermont in the first round, and the Catamounts hit nine threes while shooting 38% from behind the arc. It wasn’t long ago the Razorbacks were bounced from the SEC Tournament after allowing 82 points to Texas A&M. The Aggies shot 53% from 3-point range.
Big players step up in big games, and Banchero has yet another opportunity to do so on Saturday night.
PICK: Paolo Banchero Over 1.5 made threes (+170 at FanDuel)
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Feasting on the boards
Eric Musselman has essentially moved to a six-man rotation since the beginning of the SEC Tournament. The Razorbacks are playing four starters close to the full 40 minutes every single game, while the fifth and sixth players split the other 40 minutes. Musselman has shown an immense amount of trust in his core group of players, and it’s paid off — the Hogs toppled the top-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs en route to a monumental Elite Eight showing with Duke.
There’s no reason to expect Musselman to deviate from this allotment of minutes. Stick with what’s working.
Forward Jaylin Williams has been one of the players seeing nearly 40 minutes every game, and he’s put up some wonderful performances on the court. Oftentimes functioning as the only big on the court for the Hogs, Williams plays a crucial rebounding role.
He was an integral piece of the Gonzaga upset, holding his own despite matching up with arguably the best frontcourt in the country. He’ll be tasked with a huge role once again Saturday night against Duke and big man Mark Williams.
The Razorback forward has double-doubled in every game of the tournament. How’s this for production: he’s grabbed at least 10 rebounds in 11 of his last 13 games. The minutes aren’t going anywhere and we expect the production on the glass to continue.
PICK: Jaylin Williams Over 9.5 rebounds (-118 at FanDuel)
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