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San Diego State vs Alabama Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Bradley Bulldozes the Tide

The Aztecs will look to upset the Crimson Tide when these two programs meet in the Sweet 16. Regardless of the outcome, we're taking Matt Bradley to ball out against the Tide defense on Friday. Read more in our San Diego State vs. Alabama betting picks.

Last Updated: Mar 24, 2023 8:48 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

Alabama and San Diego State are set to meet in Louisville for our latest March Madness picks.

Each of these teams to the Sweet 16 relatively comfortably, as the Tide took control midway through the first half against Maryland and never looked back, winning by 22 points. It was a similar story for San Diego State, as the Aztecs controlled the majority of the game against Furman.

Both teams are coming into this matchup with high confidence, which should make for an entertaining affair. March Madness odds currently have the Tide as 7.5-point favorites with the total set at 137.

What’s the best net for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for San Diego State vs. Alabama on March 24.

San Diego State vs Alabama best odds

San Diego State vs Alabama picks and predictions

I’m backing Matt Bradley to thrive in this matchup. Bradley's the best individual scorer on San Diego State and he’s been absolutely brilliant in isolation situations this season.

Not only does the 23-year-old guard have an eFG% close to 50, but he also has a point-per-shot rating of 1. If you were to contextualize that number, it would place him in the same neighborhood as scorers like Antonio Reeves of Kentucky and Wendell Green of Auburn. Alabama faced those two players in the regular season, and they averaged an impressive 17.6 points per game—a total we’d happily take in this matchup.

The Tide also rank 222nd in foul rate and Bradley has the best free throw percentage on the Aztecs. This is excellent insurance if we need a little push to get him past his point total of 13.5.

Bradley has the best matchup in the game and should get a decent amount of usage. Additionally, he’s gone Over 13.5 points in two of his last three games, with the lone start coming in a blowout win over Furman.

My best bet: Matt Bradley Over 13.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

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San Diego State vs Alabama spread analysis

I grabbed San Diego State at +8 on FanDuel earlier this week, and the number dropped back down to +7.5 about an hour later. That number seemed to indicate the high water mark, and I think it’s unlikely you’ll see it again. 

The key in this game for San Diego State is controlling the pace. It’s one of the best half-court defenses that Alabama has seen this season, allowing 0.83 points per possession in the half-court. 

If the Aztecs can make this a half-court game, they’ll limit Alabama’s athleticism and force players like Brandon Miller and Jahvon Quinerly into tough spot-up shots — an area SDSU has defended reasonably well this season.

San Diego State vs Alabama Over/Under analysis

I won’t be on a side here, but I naturally lean to the Under since I expect San Diego State to control the pace and force a slower game.

My projections came in right in line with the total of 137, and there is a vast amount of trends that favor the Under with these two teams. San Diego State games have gone Under in six straight games following an ATS win, while Alabama has seen its games go Under in five of its last six overall.

This is an excellent game to monitor for live betting. If the Aztecs are noticeably in control of the pace, then I’d be interested in taking a shot of the in-game Under.

San Diego State vs Alabama betting trend to know

San Diego State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games. Find more college basketball betting trends for San Diego State vs Alabama.

San Diego State vs Alabama game info

Region: South
Location: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY
Date: Friday, March 24, 2023
Tip-off: 6:30 p.m. ET

San Diego State vs Alabama key injuries


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