Princeton vs Creighton Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Tigers and Bluejays Rack up the Points

The Princeton Tigers will look to continue their incredible Cinderella run through the NCAA Tournament when they face off against Creighton Bluejays in the Sweet 16 of our March Madness picks.

No. 15 seed Princeton (23-8) pulled off a huge upset against the Arizona Wildcats in the first round, before beating the Missouri Tigers by 15 in the second round on Sunday.

Sixth-seeded Creighton (23-12) has been favored according to March Madness odds for both of its wins so far, prevailing over both North Carolina State and Baylor. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ run is stunning not just for the upsets they pulled, but how they managed to win to get this far.

We’ll look at how that influences this Sweet 16 matchup for bettors in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Princeton vs. Creighton on March 24.

Princeton vs Creighton best odds

Princeton vs Creighton picks and predictions

While Princeton pulled off a surprise win when it knocked off Arizona in the first round, that alone wouldn’t be an absolute shock. Upsets happen in the NCAA Tournament, and even No. 15 seeds have gotten to the point of being dangerous at this point in the tourney. 

Still, you’d expect that the Tigers would have to play their A-game to upset a team as talented as Arizona. In reality, Princeton didn’t play particularly well at all, shooting just 40.6% overall and a terrible 4-for-25 from 3-point range. It’s just that the Wildcats were even worse, hitting just three shots from beyond the arc and committing 13 turnovers while getting outrebounded by a smaller Princeton team.

This is important to consider when we look at Friday’s matchup, especially when it comes to the total. Bucking its reputation from Pete Carril’s time as the head coach at Princeton, the Tigers are now a solid, well-rounded offensive team that plays at a reasonable tempo. The “Princeton Offense” days of holding the ball and waiting for a backdoor cut are long over, though some fans and bettors may still expect that from this school.

Creighton is among the top teams in the country on both offense and defense and also plays at a moderate pace. The Bluejays are scoring 76.8 points per game themselves — doing so against tougher competition than Princeton faced — while allowing only 67.9 points on average. There’s a good reason that Creighton is a large favorite in this game, as it's the more talented and rested team entering Friday.

What’s harder to understand is how the total has been set at just 140 points. Both teams are averaging totals above that number this season, with Creighton (144.7) coming in only marginally higher than Princeton (144.6).

Perhaps the high-profile, very low-scoring win by Princeton over Arizona is playing a role in this. After all, in that game, the two teams combined for just 114 points. But as I pointed out earlier, this was an aberration for both teams and a stunningly poor offensive performance that worked out in favor of the Tigers.

In reality, Princeton has played to totals of above 140 in 10 of its last 13 games. That’s not the profile many would expect from the Tigers, but the reality is that this is not a low-scoring team. Creighton is similar, going above a total of 140 in nine of its last 10 games.

There’s nothing about this game that suggests it will buck these trends, so I’m taking the Over.

My best bet: Over 140 (-108 at BetRivers)

Princeton vs Creighton spread analysis

Creighton opened this game as a 10-point favorite. While that number has bounced around a bit, most sites have settled on keeping Princeton +10 as the consensus spread.

Princeton has been strong against the spread this year, putting up a 17-12 ATS record on the season. Meanwhile, Creighton has played close to .500 at 18-17 ATS.

The Tigers have been particularly good for bettors down the stretch. Princeton has covered in eight of its last 10 games, including six straight heading into Friday’s game. It has been particularly good over the last three contests, covering by double-digits each time.

It would be tempting to say that Princeton’s luck will run out now that it faces a step up in competition. That said, Creighton rates out similarly to Arizona, so the talent level shouldn’t shock the Tigers. The bigger problem for Princeton will be that it can’t expect the Bluejays to play as poorly as the Wildcats did in that first-round matchup.

Most of the advanced metrics make Creighton a double-digit favorite, though not by much more than the spread. When you factor in that Princeton is playing its best basketball of the season right now, it’s hard to give the Tigers 10 points.

Creighton will almost certainly win this game, but predicting the margin is difficult, and the line feels right on the money. I’m staying away from the spread on this matchup.

Princeton vs Creighton Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for this game opened at 140 points. There hasn’t been much movement, and most sites still list 140 as the main total.

There aren’t any strong season-long trends for this market. Princeton has seen the Over go 16-13 in its games, while the Under is 18-16-1 in Creighton’s contests this year.

As I talked about in my extended analysis above, both teams are generally playing above tonight’s total, especially as of late. Even if you want to just look at how they’re performing for bettors, the Over seems like the play. Creighton has hit the Over in five of its last seven, while Princeton has done so in six of 10. There are no significant injuries that should influence how this game is played.

Neither team plays some sort of extreme style that will be drastically impacted by the opponent. Princeton and Creighton each boast multiple scoring options and aren’t dependent on a single player shooting well to get points, meaning they are fairly resilient when it comes to running their offenses.

In other words, there’s absolutely no reason why the total should be this low, or why you should bet the Under at the current number. I’m playing the Over with no reservations.

Princeton vs Creighton betting trend to know

The Over is 9-4 in Princeton’s last 13 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Princeton vs Creighton.

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