The No. 1 Michigan Wolverines take on the No. 8 LSU Tigers in one of the most intriguing matchups in the Round of 32 on Monday.
Michigan had little trouble with Texas Southern in the tournament opener but didn’t cover the massive 26-point spread, marking the fourth time in the past six games the Wolverines have let bettors down. Louisiana State is playing its best basketball of the season, coming off a strong effort in the SEC Tournament and handling a very crafty St. Bonaventure squad in the Round of 64.
Check out our free March Madness picks and predictions for LSU vs. Michigan on March 22.
LSU vs Michigan odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonMichigan hit DraftKings' odds board as a 5-point favorite Saturday evening, got to -5.5 Sunday, but dropped to -4 by late this afternoon and is now -4.5 at 5 p.m. ET. It's pretty much dead-even two-way action on the spread, with Michigan landing 51 percent of bets and the money split 50/50. The total moved from 148 to 149, then backed up to 147, with 58 percent of bets/64 percent of dollars on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameLSU Tigers vs Michigan Wolverines betting preview
Injuries
LSU: None.
Michigan: Isaiah Livers F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 46-20 in the Tigers’ last 66 games as underdogs. Find more NCAA betting trends for LSU vs. Michigan.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Louisiana State is playing at a very high level entering the second round of the Big Dance. The Tigers took down Arkansas in the SEC Tournament semifinals and lost by one point to Alabama in the championship game before handling a very good St. Bonaventure defense to kick of their NCAA Tournament.
Offense is what powers the Tigers, who rank fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.com. Louisiana State has posted scores of 76, 78, 79, and 76 points in its four postseason games (SEC and NCAA), all coming against foes ranked in the Top 23 in defensive efficiency.
Michigan fits that mold, coming into this matchup at No. 6 in the hallowed advanced defensive metric. The Wolverines, who have the fourth-best March Madness odds to win the national title, are a big team that looks to impose that size advantage on both ends of the floor, but their plodding pace could get pushed outside its comfort zone by LSU’s up-tempo style and athletic forwards.
The Tigers have multiple scoring options, with standouts Trendon Watford and Cameron Thomas always a threat, making them a tough team to slow down. Louisiana State had four players in double figures versus the Bonnies, with Thomas leading the charge with 27 points in the victory.
While the Wolverines didn’t miss injured forward and top defender Isaiah Livers much versus Texas Southern, his absence will be painfully felt against LSU in this tight Round of 32 affair. The Tigers have done nothing but cover against elite defenses in the postseason (4-0 ATS) and Monday will be no different.
PREDICTION: LSU +5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Tigers did a great job adjusting to the Bonnies’ slower game plan in the Round of 64 and played one of their better defensive games of the season, holding St. Bonaventure to just 33 percent shooting. But I’m not convinced these Tigers are suddenly changing their stripes.
Louisiana State has been flaky at best on the defensive end this year and face a very talented Michigan offense, which is seventh in offensive efficiency. The best plan of attack for LSU is to attack, especially from beyond the arc. The Tigers have had the touch from distance during their strong postseason performances, shooting 25 for 65 from 3-point range in the SEC Tournament and knocking down eight triples in Saturday’s win.
I expect this to be a physical matchup with plenty of whistles on both sides. Michigan and LSU make the most of those free throws, shooting 76.5 and 74.6 percent from the stripe, respectively, and combined to hit 39 of 48 foul shots in the Round of 64. Plenty of scoring with the clock stopped will help push this total Over.
PREDICTION: Over 148 (-110)
Player prop pick
I love me some quick and dirty prop bets, and it doesn’t get quicker or dirtier than betting on which player will score the first basket of the game.
Of course, LSU’s Thomas is at the top of the board at +350 but there could be some solid value on fellow Tiger Watford at +559.
The 6-foot-9 forward has got the ball rolling for this offense in three of the past four games. That includes Saturday’s painfully slow start in which both teams took two and a half minutes to crack the scoreboard.
PREDICTION: First basket scorer – Trendon Watford (+559)
LSU vs Michigan betting card
- LSU +5 (-110)
- Over 148 (-110)
- First basket scorer – Trendon Watford (+559)
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