The rest of the East Region has gone pretty much according to plan, but don’t tell that to the No. 11 UCLA Bruins or the No. 14 Abilene Christian Wildcats, who have stunned their way into a Round of 32 matchup Monday.
The Bruins have momentum after clawing their way out of the First Four on Thursday and upsetting No. 6 BYU in the opening round. The Wildcats gave us one of the biggest shockers of the NCAA Tournament, taking down Big 12 Tournament champ Texas as 8.5-point college basketball betting underdogs Saturday.
Don’t miss our free March Madness picks and predictions for Abilene Christian vs. UCLA on March 22.
Abilene Christian vs UCLA odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel opened UCLA a 4.5-point chalk, moved to -5 late Saturday night, dipped to -4 Sunday afternoon and is out to -5.5 as of 3 p.m. ET Monday, a couple of hours before tipoff. Point-spread ticket count is 2/1 and money 3/1 on the Bruins. The total moved from 133.5 to 133, with 61 percent of bets/55 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAbilene Christian Wildcats vs UCLA Bruins betting preview
Injuries
Abilene Christian: None.
UCLA: Jalen Hill F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Bruins' last six games vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Abilene Christian vs. UCLA.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Bruins have been firing on all cylinders in their two tourney games, shooting a collective 59 for 125 (47 percent) from the field in wins over Michigan State and BYU, including a near-46 percent clip from beyond the arc (17 for 37). That hot hand will be put to the test by one of the best defensive programs in the country in Abilene Christian.
The Wildcats rank 24th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency and are extremely stingy when it comes to giving shooters space on the perimeter. Abilene Christian held foes to only 29 percent success from beyond the arc during the season, with an average of just 5.1 3-pointers against. The Wildcats defied March Madness odds by clamping down on Texas Saturday, holding the Longhorns to 7 of 20 from outside (35 percent)—below their season average of 8.6 triples an outing.
Abilene Christian’s defensive intensity is fueled by a rich rotation that ranks 53rd in bench minutes and goes five deep down the pine. The Wildcats will put the Bruins’ reserve tanks to the test, playing their third NCAA Tournament game in five days come Monday night.
The Wildcats are one of the best bets in college hoops, boasting an 18-6 ATS mark this season, and added another payday to the pile with an outright win as 8.5-point dogs versus Texas. Abilene Christian may not have another stunner in them...but they will keep this closer than bookies expect.
PREDICTION: Abilene Christian +5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
As good as UCLA’s offensive touch has been the past two games, with guard Johnny Juzang as the catalyst, the Bruins are a defense-first program under Mick Cronin.
They’ve been a different team since the halftime break versus Michigan State in the play-in round, locking down the Spartans to only 33 points in the final 20 minutes of regulation then tightening even more for just three points allowed in overtime. UCLA carried that defensive prowess into the matchup with BYU, holding the Cougars to 27 first-half points and protecting the perimeter with only three made triples from a BYU team that’s among the best long-range attacks in the country.
Perhaps the best defense UCLA can play against Abilene Christian is on offense—by taking care of the basketball. The Wildcats thrive on converting points off of turnovers, as displayed against Texas Saturday. They’re No. 1 in turnovers per game on the year at 19.2 and forced the Horns to cough the ball up 22 times in the Round of 64, exchanging those for 23 of their 53 total points scored.
The Bruins average less than 11 turnovers per contest and have been especially protective of the ball during the postseason, posting turnover totals of just eight and three in their two tourney tilts. The Wildcats rank fourth in extra-scoring chances in the land but will find those easy buckets tough to come by Monday night.
PREDICTION: Under 133.5 (-110)
Team prop pick
Abilene Christian has won the “First To 15” prop in four of its five postseason games, including edging Texas 15-11 on Saturday night.
The Wildcats made quick work of this race to 15 prop in three of their four Southland Tournament games and will ride that energy into the opening minutes of Monday’s matchup with UCLA.
Abilene Christian is 7-3 in the “First to 15” market in its past 10 games overall.
PREDICTION: First to 15 – Abilene Christian (+105)
Abilene Christian vs UCLA betting card
- Abilene Christian +5 (-110)
- Under 133.5 (-110)
- First to 15 – Abilene Christian (+105)
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