The No. 5 Colorado Buffaloes produced one of the most impressive performances in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament and face the No. 3 Florida State Seminoles in the Round of 32 on Monday.
Colorado rolled over Georgetown’s vaunted defense, trouncing the Hoyas 96-73 on Saturday, and is now getting 1.5 points from a Florida State squad that had an uncomfortable win over UNC Greensboro in its Big Dance opener.
Here are our free March Madness picks and predictions for Colorado vs. Florida State on March 22.
Colorado vs Florida State odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDraftKings' line looks as it should for a No. 5 vs. No. 4 clash, with Florida State opening -1.5 Saturday night, peaking at -2, making a couple trips to -1, then going back to the opener Monday afternoon. As of 5 p.m. ET, it's two-way point-spread action, with 51 percent of bets on Colorado and 52 percent of cash on the Seminoles. The total bounced from 140 to 139 to 141, with ticket count and money both just beyond 3/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameColorado Buffaloes vs Florida State Seminoles betting preview
Injuries
Colorado: None.
Florida State: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 8-4 in the Buffaloes’ last 12 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Colorado vs. Florida State.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Recency biased be damned: Colorado looks like the best team in the NCAA Tournament after blowing out Georgetown in the Round of 64.
The Buffaloes played fantastic two-way basketball and their smaller lineup gave the lumbering Hoyas fits, exploiting those speed mismatches to leaving Georgetown flat-footed on defense. Colorado erupted for nearly 61 percent shooting from the field, including a 16-for-25 effort from beyond the arc.
Granted, the Hoyas were primed for a letdown after their stunning run to the Big East Tournament title, but the Buffs were a hot knife through a buttery defense that ranked Top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tournament. Colorado moved the ball with ease and registered 27 assists in the victory.
Florida State, which has March Madness odds of +2,600 to win the title, hasn’t looked right for a while now. The Seminoles backed into the ACC Tournament, losing two of their last three regular-season games, and fell to Georgia Tech in the tournament final after getting a free pass to the semis.
The Noles couldn’t put away pesky UNC Greensboro until the final minutes despite holding big leads in Saturday’s Round of 64 opener and fell short of the 10.5-point closing spread – making FSU 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
The Florida State defense allowed the Spartans to go on extended scoring runs and now face a Colorado offense coming off what was pretty much a 40-minute red-hot run. Buffs star guard McKinley Wright IV could be the best player Florida State has faced all season, and he has plenty of legs left after playing just 29 minutes on Saturday.
Is this spread a touch slimmer due to Colorado’s impressive opener? Yep. Are the Buffaloes the better bet? Damn skippy.
PREDICTION: Colorado +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Everyone makes a fuss over Florida State’s versatile offense but the Noles aren’t the same team away from Tallahassee. Leonard Hamilton’s program posted an average of 82.5 points on nearly 49 percent shooting at home, but that production falls off a cliff on the road.
Florida State averaged fewer than 74 points per game on the road and has posted totals of 69, 75, and 64 in three postseason games this year. The biggest drop-off is 3-point shooting, and that showed in a 0-for-9 blunder from distance against UNCG.
As impressive as the Buffaloes’ offensive efficiency was versus the Hoyas, they also limited Georgetown to under 40 percent shooting and did a great job bumping with the bigger Hoyas on the glass.
Colorado ranks 28th in KenPom.com’s adjusted defensive efficiency and forces opponents to chew up 18.6 seconds per possession – seventh longest in the country. The Buffaloes may be 3-1 Over/Under in postseason play but were 9-17-1 O/U during the regular season.
PREDICTION: Under 140 (-110)
Team prop pick
I bet the Under on the Seminoles’ team total versus UNCG and will do it again in the Round of 32.
As noted, FSU sees a major dip in scoring when outside of the Donald L. Tucker Center and outside of a Senior Night smashing of lowly Boston College on March 3 (93-64), the Seminoles have topped out at 75 points in those other five games going back to February 27.
Colorado allowed 73 points to Georgetown on Saturday, after taking its foot off the gas in the second half. That’s the most the Buffaloes have allowed to a foe since February 6 – limiting opponents to an average of just over 55 points per game in the 11 contests leading up to the NCAA Tournament.
PREDICTION: Florida State team total Under 70.5 (-110)
Colorado vs Florida State betting card
- Colorado +1.5 (-110)
- Under 140 (-110)
- Florida State team total Under 70.5 (-110)
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