Furman vs Virginia Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Cavaliers Slow the Paladins Down

The Furman Paladins will make their first appearance in the NCAA Tournament since 1980 when they take on the Virginia Cavaliers in the first round of the South Region on Thursday.

No. 13 seed Furman (27-7) won the Southern Conference Tournament to earn an automatic bid after also winning the regular season title. No. 4 seed Virginia (25-7) topped the ACC with a 15-5 regular season record, but fell in the finals of the conference tournament to the Duke Blue Devils.

In a contrast of styles, the Paladins will test their efficient offense against the legendary Cavaliers defense. We’ll break down what this means in March Madness odds, and for bettors, in our college basketball picks and predictions for Furman vs. Virginia on March 16. For more, check out our March Madness picks page.

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Furman vs Virginia picks and predictions

Last year, Furman came up just short of making the NCAA Tournament, as it lost by a single point in overtime to Chattanooga in the conference final. This season, it brought back an experienced team, led by fifth-year seniors Mike Bothwell and Jalen Slawson, with the goal of finishing the job.

Furman has succeeded in that goal by playing some of the most efficient offense in the country. The Paladins are shooting the ball at 48.6% from the field and averaging 82.2 points per game. They don’t turn the ball over much and have generally enjoyed the rebounding advantage against their Southland Conference opponents.

Furman probably won’t have that luxury against a punishing and effective Virginia defense. The Cavaliers are best known for playing some of the slowest basketball in the country, but they combine that with defensive efficiency, holding opponents to just 41.9% from the field and allowing just .942 points per possession. They’ll have a size advantage against the Paladins and will surely be the toughest defense Furman has faced all year.

That means Furman will have to make the most out of every possession it gets. The Paladins don’t particularly push the pace, meaning that Virginia will likely control how quickly — or rather, how slowly — these teams run up and down the court. The Cavaliers are pretty good at controlling the pace of play against most teams, and as the more talented side against a team that ranks middle-of-the-road in all pace metrics, that shouldn’t be a problem on Thursday.

That has me looking at the total for this game with some interest. The Over/Under is sitting at around 132 points, which looks reasonable at first glance. The Paladins like to score, while Virginia likes to sit on the ball. Average out those ideas, figure that Furman doesn’t put up huge numbers now that it’s stepping up in competition, and a game at around the 130 total seems reasonable.

But Virginia has gone over 132 points only three times in its last 13 games. Even in their losses, it has been hard for opponents to force the Cavaliers to play quickly, with Duke and Boston College only taking down Virginia by holding it below 50 points.

Unless Furman solves the Virginia defense in a way few teams have this year, this should be a low-scoring game with few possessions and even fewer second-chance opportunities. I’m backing the Under in this matchup. 

My best bet: Under 132.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Furman vs Virginia spread analysis

Virginia opened Thursday’s game as a 5-point favorite. Bettors have moved the number slightly towards the Cavaliers, with the consensus spread now Virginia -5.5. 

Furman has gone 18-13 against the spread this year. Virginia has struggled to cover the number, going just 12-18-2 ATS on the season.

That can be a problem for low-scoring teams that simply don’t get enough chances to widen the gap between themselves and their opponents. With Virginia often scoring 65 points or less, blowouts aren’t in the cards very often.

The Paladins have a real chance in this game. They have an experienced, disciplined group that shoots the ball well, albeit mostly from inside the arc. They tend to make the most of their opportunities, something they’ll need to do against this Cavaliers defense.

If Furman goes cold on Thursday, this game could get ugly in a hurry. But the more likely scenario is that the Paladins keep things close and give themselves at least a chance to win in the final minutes. I was wary of betting this game at five points, but the added hook makes me inclined to take Furman plus the points.

Furman vs Virginia Over/Under analysis

The total on this matchup opened at 133 points. That number has come down just about everywhere, and at the time of this writing, you can find Over/Under figures anywhere from 131.5 to 132.5 by shopping around.

Oddsmakers typically set Virginia’s totals in the 120s. Yet the Cavaliers continue to hit the Under, doing so in six of their last nine games. Furman went Over in two of its three conference tournament games, though the semifinal against the Western Carolina Catamounts would have been Under had the game not gone to overtime.

It’s hard to imagine Furman doing anything to take Virginia out of their game plan. The Cavaliers play methodically, limiting the number of possessions while also preventing their opponents from getting into a rhythm. 

The Paladins might have a bit more success than an average team against Virginia’s suffocating defense. But this isn’t going to be a game that is played in the 70s. Even as the number falls a bit, I’m still happy to take the Under at the best odds we can find on the market.

Furman vs Virginia betting trend to know

The Under is 5-2 in Virginia’s last seven NCAA Tournament games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Charleston vs. San Diego State.

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