Kansas and Arkansas meet with a trip to the Sweet 16 up for grabs in what promises to be a great game, and we have your March Madness picks to get ready.
Kansas is aiming to do it again. It lost in the Big 12 championship but hasn't stopped many from picking the Jayhawks to get to Houston. Its win over Howard was never in question, as it raced out to a 13-point halftime lead and never looked back.
Arkansas had a bit more of a battle on its heads with Illinois but eventually, the Razorbacks pulled away. They'll enter this one as 5.5-point underdogs on the March Madness odds board.
Many have circled this game as a potential upset, check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Kansas vs. Arkansas.
Arkansas vs Kansas best odds
Arkansas vs Kansas picks and predictions
This feels like a Dajuan Harris game.
When the senior guard plays well, generally, Kansas is unbeatable. Still, I am interested in doing something other than overcomplicating this with a side.
I like Harris' matchup and will target him in the prop market.
What has plagued Arkansas throughout the season is defending cutting actions. It hurt it against Arkansas, and it’ll see one of the best cutters in the Big 12 in this spot. Harris has averaged a sparkling 1.6 points per possession on cuts this season. That's exceptional, placing him in the Top 4% of college basketball.
That's a big problem for the Razorbacks, as they allowed the third most scores from cutters this season in the SEC. The two teams beyond them didn't sniff the NCAA Tournament.
Harris tied his season-high in points in his last game against Kansas State with 18. The Wildcats are the team that compares most favorably with Arkansas in this spot of the floor. K-State allows 62% shooting on cutting actions, while Arkansas allows 67%.
Harris also saw a lousy-cutting defense in matchups against West Virginia. The Mountaineers allow a higher percentage from cutters than Arkansas at an eye-popping 69%. Yet, in those games, Harris played well. He scored 13, 17, and 11 points — all numbers that would cash this bet if he were to repeat.
Harris's success against bad-cutting defenses isn't a coincidence, and that's why we're backing him in this spot. He's a senior veteran that raised his game in a big way a season ago during the Jayhawks' title run.
They'll need him in this matchup, and I'm backing him to show up.
My best bet: Dajuan Harris Over 11.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
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Arkansas vs Kansas spread analysis
I like Kansas to win this game but given the swings I'm expecting, it's nothing I'd bet pregame.
It's all the cliche things, but sometimes those cliches are correct. Kansas has been here before and it’s battle-tested.
Arkansas is a relatively young team that struggled for any consistency this season. You even saw that in its opening-round game against Illinois, where it controlled throughout and nearly fumbled things at the end. It's those lapses of play that will get you beat against Kansas.
I'm looking to grab the Jayhawks at -115 or better.
Arkansas vs Kansas Over/Under analysis
I am going to place a unit on the Over of 143 available at FanDuel. It's in the interest of both of these teams to speed things up, and I expect that to help us with the Over here.
Both have NBA-caliber athletes, and both excel in transition. I talked plenty about Kansas exposing Arkansas via backdoor cutters, but it’s worth remembering Arkansas also has a few offensive advantages.
Arkansas should be able to find success getting to the free-throw line here. It draws fouls at a clip that is Top 25 in the country, and Kansas sits in the top half of foul rate. Kansas games have gone Over at a high clip after a big win. The Jayhawks have seen their games go Over in four of their last five after a 20-point win.
Arkansas vs Kansas betting trend to know
Kansas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games after a win. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Kansas.
Arkansas vs Kansas game info
| Region: | West |
| Location: | Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA |
| Date: | Saturday, March 18, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 5:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Arkansas vs Kansas key injuries
